The longer these disparate vorticity maxims interfere with the others ability to become dominant the farther west this entire region will move along with the environmental flow. When/if a TC becomes better organized its vertical structure will then as a whole be more prone to moving along with the steering level wind field, which is probably why many of the models move this through the northern Leewards. There is already a slight north bias of the models recent runs and it may be because they are keying in on the vortex closer to 52w/14n, and by supposition are missing the limiting interaction with the vortex near 58w/13n. Already we begin to question the robustness of the GFDL and HWRF 12z runs, at least in the early time intervals. It seems they are always on a fast bias with the spin up momentum.
My personal belief is that the system near 52/14 will become the dominant of the two, and probably absorb the westerly center based purely on PGF becoming overwhelming and shredding/shearing the low-level vorticity associated with 58/13 (timing all that is next to impossible). The latter cyclone aspect has a clearer and larger mass associated already with its circulation. Caveat, this based purely on satellite observation.
Recon report should be interesting/revealing. Satellite can lie. We have seen plenty of systems with clear and present cyclonic motion in cloud field, but then recon fails to close off circulation, before... It is possible that the west center has a better low level circulation, where the east system has a better elevated/mid level vortex with comparably less low level involvement. In other wods ... a big mess. If that is the case I no longer have a personal belief!
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Re: Large Wave East of Caribbean Slowly Organizing
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