SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL 455 PM EDT SUN JUL 31 2011
FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...
SPECIAL OUTLOOK ISSUED TO UPDATE DISCUSSION OF THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES.
UPDATED...COMMUNICATIONS PROBLEMS HAVE LIMITED THE AMOUNT OF DATA RECEIVED FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 500 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS. HOWEVER...REPORTS FROM THE AIRCRAFT ...ALONG WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION. A SECOND AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS FORMED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN DISTURBANCE...AND WILL BRING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS TO PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TONIGHT. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR TROPICAL STORM TO FORM...AND THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH CHANCE...NEAR 100 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD NEAR 15 MPH. IF THE SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL CYCLONE TONIGHT OR MONDAY ...TROPICAL STORM WATCHES OR WARNINGS WOULD BE ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS AND THE LEEWARD ISLANDS ON VERY SHORT NOTICE...AND INTERESTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. ANOTHER HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM MONDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.
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