TROPICAL DISCUSSION - INTERNATIONAL DESKS NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 652 AM EDT MON AUG 01 2011
PRELIMINARY DISCUSSION FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE USVI. AT UPPER LEVELS...THE SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE NOW EXTENDS FROM THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WESTWARD ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN TO THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. AT LOW LEVELS...A TROPICAL WAVE/BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LIES TO THE EAST OF THE ISLAND CHAIN. THE NHC CONTINUES TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR POSSIBILITY OF TROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS. THIS FEATURE IS GOING TO BE THE FORECAST CHALLENGE...AS IT IS LIKELY TO SUSTAIN ORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN ISLES.
ALOFT...THE MODELS SHOW SUBEQUATORIAL RIDGE BECOMING WELL ESTABLISHED THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...TO ANCHOR AT 250 HPA ON A CLOSED HIGH JUST SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO. LATER IN THE WEEK IT WILL THEN MERGE WITH THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AS THE LATTER BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN USA TO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. AS THE RIDGE PERSISTS/BECOME BETTER ESTABLISHED...IT WILL CONTINUE VENTING DEEP CONVECTION IN ASSOCIATION WITH SYSTEM ENTERING THE ISLAND CHAIN. CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS TO START ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLANDS TOMORROW AFTERNOON...AND MAINLAND PUERTO RICO DURING THE LATE EVENING/MORNING HOURS. THE GLOBAL GUIDANCE SHOWS MAXIMA OF FOUR TO SIX INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH REGIONAL NAM PEAKING AT EIGHT TO TEN INCHES. LOOKS LIKE MOST INTENSE IS GOING TO BE ACROSS THE VIRGIN ISLES-EASTERN/SOUTHERN PUERTO RICO.
DEPENDING ON HOW QUICKLY IT ORGANIZES...THIS SYSTEM MIGHT END UP ESTABLISHING A MOIST INFLOW AS IT TAPS INTO THE ATLANTIC ITCZ. THE MOIST FLUX COULD LAST INTO THURSDAY MORNING...IF NOT LONGER. SO WE COULD BE FACING 48-60 HRS OF ORGANIZED ACTIVITY. THIS IS GOING TO BE HEAVY RAINS OVER AN AREA THAT IS SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS EVENTS. IT IS NOT GOING TO TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE LARGE SCALE FLOODING.
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