Using the NHC 01/18Z position for the center and latest visual images, the center of Invest 91L is, at 01/21Z, passing between the islands of Dominica to the south and Guadeloupe to the north. At 01/21Z, the winds at Melville Hall Airport on Dominica were out of the east at 23 knots. The other reported light westerly winds on some of the other islands are a result of local terrain effects. The recon did find a couple of westerly winds of 5 to 7 knots, but nowhere near enough to justify an upgrade of this system to tropical cyclone status - especially when measured against the strong easterly winds on Dominica.
Realistically the system looks horrible compared to yesterday (and it looked bad then). If you had taken your first look at this system just now, would you have assigned it an 80% chance for near-term 48hr development? Even at 80% (a number that has been going down) there is still a 20% chance that it will not develop soon. Based on the disorganization of the system the development chances still seem too high and TC status is not likely tonight.
The LLCC is still moving rapidly west northwestward at 18 knots. There is still a zone of westerly shear and dry air between 18N-23N that will hamper development. It still has a chance to become a named system, but probably not an overly strong one. ED
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