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Archives 2010s >> 2011 News Talkbacks

weathernet
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Posts: 296
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Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola
Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM

No doubt, Emily's LLC would appear to be entirely decoupled from any remaining mid level center ( or al least whatever extent of primary convection farther east ). Shear at the moment is having a real impact and inflow is likely restricted due to HIspanola as well. Will assume that NHC might keep Emily as a weakened and minimal T.S. for the next advisory, given the substantial LLC and the typical time it takes to "wind down"; that and the fact that there remains the possibility of refiring of convection close to the westward tracking center.

Beyond continuity and perhaps only a slight chance of short term recovery, I would imagine that Emily will be downgraded to a depression later in the day/evening. In fact, it may well be downgraded to an open wave by this evening, however that should not mean that this remnant vigerous wave is done. Some models still want to either regenerate the mid level remant of Emily and continue to track it across Hispanola, or that the remnant vorticity would still reform either south or north of Cuba in the next couple days. Even if the later were to occur and Florida and/or the Bahamas were to come back into play, the significance of this happening would now appear as more of a rain impact than from wind.

It would seem that barring some pretty unusual set of circumstances though, there should not be a major risk to the U.S. from Emily unless reorganization were to occur AND a stalled reorganizing system were to intensify from little in a hurry.

Edited by weathernet (Wed Aug 03 2011 10:43 AM)

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Subject	Posted by	Posted on
Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	OrlandoDan	Thu Aug 04 2011 05:57 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	OrlandoDan	Thu Aug 04 2011 04:57 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	OrlandoDan	Thu Aug 04 2011 04:53 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	OrlandoDan	Thu Aug 04 2011 03:49 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	Bloodstar	Thu Aug 04 2011 03:44 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	weathernet	Thu Aug 04 2011 02:13 AM
Re: Current Location	weathernet	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:49 AM
Re: Current Location	danielw	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:47 AM
Re: Current Location	IsoFlame	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:26 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	Bloodstar	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:13 AM
Re: Current Location	danielw	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:06 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	IsoFlame	Thu Aug 04 2011 01:06 AM
Current Location	danielw	Thu Aug 04 2011 12:57 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	Bev	Thu Aug 04 2011 12:36 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	scottsvb	Thu Aug 04 2011 12:35 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	LoisCane	Thu Aug 04 2011 12:20 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	Lamar-Plant City	Thu Aug 04 2011 12:12 AM
Re: Current Model Swath	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:53 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:49 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	scottsvb	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:37 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:21 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	hogrunr	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:12 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	ralphfl	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:11 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:59 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	M.A.	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:55 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	scottsvb	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:49 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:46 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:39 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:39 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	berrywr	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:37 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	M.A.	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:26 PM
Re: Current Model Swath	LoisCane	Wed Aug 03 2011 09:34 PM
Current Model Swath	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:44 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:03 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	metwannabe	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:03 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:43 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Hugh	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:32 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:31 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MichaelA	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:24 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	OrlandoDan	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:16 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:16 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 03 2011 06:19 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 03 2011 05:30 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	metwannabe	Wed Aug 03 2011 05:06 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Lamar-Plant City	Wed Aug 03 2011 05:04 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MichaelA	Wed Aug 03 2011 05:00 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 04:33 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	doug	Wed Aug 03 2011 03:32 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	JMII	Wed Aug 03 2011 03:14 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	weathernet	Wed Aug 03 2011 02:54 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	WesnWylie	Wed Aug 03 2011 02:51 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	weathernet	Wed Aug 03 2011 02:50 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	stormtiger	Wed Aug 03 2011 02:42 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	WeatherNut	Wed Aug 03 2011 01:43 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	BayCoGator	Wed Aug 03 2011 12:53 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 03 2011 12:46 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 12:14 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	scottsvb	Wed Aug 03 2011 12:06 PM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	danielw	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:56 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	scottsvb	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:30 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 11:07 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	weathernet	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:38 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	JMII	Wed Aug 03 2011 10:24 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	adam s	Wed Aug 03 2011 09:57 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 03 2011 09:48 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 09:41 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Joeyfl	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:53 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:19 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	Cape Weather	Wed Aug 03 2011 08:04 AM
Re: Emily Headed West Northwest Toward Hispaniola	MikeC	Wed Aug 03 2011 07:19 AM

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