Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear

Weird crazy storm! When I least expect, convection is truly attempting to rebuild over the LLC.

Am also noticing some odd new surge of easterly winds suddenly shunting and pushing against the convection ( mid level vortex? ) farther to the east. Of course this could only help in possibly abatting further convection from firing up to the east and thus further thwarting inflow issues to the low level center.

As for the cut off low just north of Jamaica, I had not really noticed it earlier. It is quite small and typically might just be pushed out of the way by a significant system. In this case ( and given its small size and appearant influence ), I would assume it to not reflect down to the 500mb ( steering ) level and thus have no impact in that regard. Emily is curerently being afftect from what would appear to be outrunning its own anticyclone and is being impacted by the very southerly flow from the upper high presently hovering south of Puerto Rico ( and forecasted to move and expand northwards interestingly ). What minor influence the cutoff low dropping south from near Jamaica might provide, would perhaps slightly aid Emily's western flank outflow if the upper low does continue to drop to the south.

Also did notice on the 12Z upper air data/forcast, that there was some odd 300mb winds which seemed to impact some north/easterly shear at that level, while all along the greater 200mb southerly shear remains. Looks like the upper air 300mb issues abate in the very short term, and by 24 hours the greater southerly shear looks to abate quite a bit as well. Longer range ( 2-3 days ) seemed quite transitional. At the base of the current trough, there would appear to be a shear line that might lie north of Cuba and in between the building upper high to its east and the larger upper ridging expanding eastward from the Southeast U.S. On one hand overall ridging would seem to indicate better upper air dynamics, but a small weak storm without any well established anticyclone might fall prey to the varying shear zones. At a minimum, sure does appear that Emily ( or what is left of her ) may traverse less land than earlier thought. Seems oddly complex.

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