Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear

There are many models used to forecast Emily's track in the days ahead.
I went through all but the AP suite of models and the current results are below.
From left to right:, or lower to upper.
Xtrap-Current direction of movement
BAMD-Beta and advection model (deep layer)
BAMM-Beta and advection model (medium layer)
BAMS-Beta and advection model (shallow layer)
NHC OFCI-Previous cycle OFCL, adjusted
AVNI- AVN model Interpolated
AEMN-National Weather Service Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS)

Note: The BAM Suite 5 day point is just off of the Western tip of Cuba.
Beta and Advection Model (BAM)

The Beta and Advection Model (BAM) refers to a class of simple trajectory models that utilize vertically averaged horizontal winds from the GFS to compute TC trajectories. These trajectories include a correction term to account for the impact of the earth.s rotation. The BAM is based upon the concept of a simple relationship between storm intensity/depth and steering levels. Strong cyclones typically extend through the entire depth of the troposphere and are steered by deeper layer-average winds, while weaker cyclones are steered by shallower layer-average winds. The BAM is run in three versions corresponding to the different depths used in the trajectory calculation: BAM shallow (850-700 mb), BAM medium (850-400 mb), and BAM deep (850-200 mb), known as BAMS, BAMM and BAMD, respectively. The performance of the BAM is strongly dependent on the dynamical input from the GFS. A divergence of the three versions of the BAM indicates varying steering flow within the parent GFS model. Hence, spread among the three versions of the BAM also serves as a rough estimate of the vertical shear as well as the complexity and uncertainty in the track forecast.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ssd/nwpmodel/html/nhcmodel.htm

The current Cone of Certainty from NHC basically splits the models. Using the models on the left or eastern side of the model swath.

Note. I'm not implying the BAM suite is correct. The suite just happens to be the best guidance so far with Emily's track. For the last several days. Please refer to Official NHC and NWS products and Statements for protection of Life and Property~danielw

Edited by danielw (Wed Aug 03 2011 09:32 PM)

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