Emily Moves Slowly Westward Future Unclear

05:00 advisory is out:

000
WTNT35 KNHC 040849
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EMILY ADVISORY NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052011
500 AM EDT THU AUG 04 2011

...CENTER OF EMILY NEAR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE ISLAND OF
HISPANIOLA...

SUMMARY OF 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.3N 71.7W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM SSW OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SSE OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE SOUTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO ENGANO
WESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* THE NORTHERN COAST OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM CABO FRANCIS
VIEJO WESTWARD TO THE NORTHERN BORDER WITH HAITI
* HAITI
* SOUTHEASTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS
* GUANTANAMO AND HOLGUIN PROVINCES IN EASTERN CUBA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN EAST-CENTRAL CUBA AND IN SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EMILY WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 71.7 WEST. EMILY IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF EMILY
WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI LATER TODAY
AND MOVE OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA TONIGHT OR EARLY FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME WEAKENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS AS
EMILY INTERACTS WITH THE HIGH TERRAIN OF HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA.
SOME RE-STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE WHEN THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER THE
BAHAMAS.

TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
MAINLY TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
RAINFALL...EMILY IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS
OF 6 TO 12 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 20 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. TOTAL RAIN
ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTHEAST AND
CENTRAL BAHAMAS...AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS. EMILY IS
EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL RAIN ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
IN PUERTO RICO.

WIND...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE OCCURRING OVER PORTIONS OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN COAST...AND WILL
LIKELY SPREAD OVER HAITI TODAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO REACH EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...THE SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS
AND THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS LATER TODAY...AND THE CENTRAL
BAHAMAS TONIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS ON FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY 1 TO 3 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS IN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING AREA. NEAR
THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS
WAVES.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 AM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN/KIMBERLAIN

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67

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