MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Gert on the Way Out and What's Next
Mon Aug 15 2011 07:20 AM
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11AM 18 August 2011 Update
The wave in the Atlantic is now being tracked as 97L, those in the Caribbean Islands will want to watch it early next week, and those in the Southeast, including Florida will want to monitor what happens with it late next week.
Speculation on the system can be found in the Forecast Lounge.
7AM 17 August 2011 Update
With Gert gone, attention focuses on the wave in the Caribbean (93L) which may have some time to develop before it reaches the Yucatan peninsula, it will likely be rain maker for central America, but time to organize will be short once it arrives in the west Caribbean.
The wave in the far eastern Atlantic still has odds that slightly do *not* favor a recurve before the continental United States. It so many eyes will likely be on this one next week if the convection in the system persists. The names for the next two systems are Harvey and Irene.
7AM 16 August 2011 Update
Tropical Storm Gert is on the wind down as it accelerates to the northeast into the open north Atlantic. The last advisory should likely come later today.
Beyond Gert, the area in the Caribbean (93L) was destroyed by dry air overnight, and it looks like it will remain weak, it has a chance to reform as a Tropical Storm when it reaches the west Caribbean late this week.
The wave currently off Africa will probably the one being talked about at the end of the week. Model runs on this one are interesting also, implying a possible threat to the Northeast Caribbean and odds favoring it staying more west than south. Strength of the overall system, however, will be the key here. This has not been designated an Invest area as of yet.
Original Update
After a bit of a crazy flare up last week, the only thing left is basically Tropical Storm Gert, which will pass very closely to the east of Bermuda later today.
There were a number of waves tracked last week, two actually developed, but recurved away (with the exception that Gert is uncomfortably close to Bermuda).
Gert has a shot at become the first hurricane of the season, even if away from land at the time.
What comes next? Well the air in the Atlantic remains fairly stable, and the Saharan Air Layer which dried up systems is very strong, so it appears Cape Verde type tracking systems are out for this week at least, and that remains a good sign there. Closer to home is what to watch out for, since anything that does form can do so quickly this time of year. (Indeed that is how we wound up with 4 invests last week, 2 of which formed into named systems)
Yes it is unusually to have this many named systems by mid August, even more unusual is that all have them have been on the weak side, and none yet (although Gert may break the streak) have only been Tropical Storms.
Places this week to watch for convection persistence, Just east of Caribbean including the eastern Caribbean Sea (93L), offshore of the Southeast US Coast, and West Caribbean.
Weather Conditions at Hamilton, Bermuda
Bermuda Weather Radar
{{StormLinks|93L|93|8|2011|1|93L (West Atlantic Wave)}}
{{StormLinks|97L|97|9|2011|2|97L}}
{{StormCarib}}
Flhurricane Radar Recording of Martinique Radar (93L Approach)
Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)
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