Irene Strengthens to a Category 2 Hurricane

11PM EDT Update 22 August 2011
The 11PM official track is out.

There is no real change to the forecast, it is just further along on the points in time, nor changes to watches and warnings.

It appears that the hurricane center is waiting for the next model runs with the Gultstream and Air Force dropsonde data to make any real change, which seems wise.

The Intensity forecast is up in the near term, now a cat 4 projected over the Bahamas, then it weakens to cat 3 north, and eventually approaches the NC/SC border Saturday evening.

If tropical storm or hurricane watches were to go up for Irene in Florida, they would likely come sometime tomorrow afternoon to fit in the 48.watch window.

8PM EDT Update 22 August 2011
From Recon Reports, Hurricane Irene has strengthened to a Category 2 hurricane with 100MPH winds.

Recon now reports a closed eyewall within Irene as the microwave imagery shows. It is likely to become a major hurricane tomorrow.

Note: We plan to turn on the site's disaster mode tomorrow which will limit certain features, but most things will still remain available. A disaster thread has been started for preparation help and questions.

11AM EDT Update 22 August 2011
Hurricane warnings are now up for the Turks and Caicos islands, and the southeastern Bahamas.

The 11AM official forecast now has moved eastward and forecasts a major hurricane in the Northern Bahamas, with eventual landfall near Charleston, South Carolina dawn on Saturday.

Much of the southeast remains in the cone, but the chances for direct impact in Florida is much less today than it was yesterday.

However, they are now forecasting a major hurricane approaching the coast of South Carolina. Those in the Coastal Carolinas (both North and South) may want to start making preparation plans in case landfall is near you, those in Florida and Georgia should already have them laid out in case a more westerly solution occurs but this is beginning to look much less likely. A stronger system would imply a turn north sooner than a weaker one (which was the old forecast), therefore Florida may escape the worst of the storm, but still get high surf from it passing through the Bahamas.

Those in the rest of the southeast will want to monitor for changes, but the trends still remain on the eastern side of the cone.

Original Update
Hurricane Irene has formed near Peurto Rico this morning as it provided an extremely rough evening across the entire island. The hurricane is now north of the western side of the ilsand, moving generally west northwest.

Some preliminary reports from Peurto Rico indicated widespread tree and power line damage, and over 800 thousand homes are without power there. See stormcarib for more reports from the islands.

The strongest side of Irene continues to be the northern side, with most of the convection pushing northward, the current forecast track moves along the northern coast of Hispaniola, where Hurricane Warnings are up for, and puts most of the Bahamas in the northern side of the storm. There is still some disagreement in models and thinking about how far west the system makes it. The current split the middle forecast is what the official forecast says, it still puts most of the southeast US on standby for the hurricane. It may not be until Tuesday or Wednesday before a clear path is known.

With the new forecast path, it does not spend as much time near Hispaniola, and with the very impressive outflow setup (similar to what is usually found in west Pacific storms) the poor south side is really the largest negative factor for development. There is a very good possibility that Irene will become a very large (size wise) major hurricane. MIMIC microwave imagery also suggests that the system is well protected from dry air intrusion which would be something to look for to keep it weaker that does not exist.

The ridging north of the system is strong which would imply generally westward movement, and we cannot say it will definitely move east of Florida (but odds are increasing that it will stay east), so again, the error in the cone can be 250 miles wide (east and west) at the end and anyone in Florida up to North Carolina should be watching Irene closely. The models have trended east, but the official track is still close to Florida, hopefully the trend to the east continues today.

The noaa Gonzo Gulfstream IV jet is taking off today from MacDill AFB in Tampa, it will sample the atmosphere in front of Irene, and hopefully will be able to be ingested into the "0Z" models run overnight.

Updates to come throughout the day.

Harvey has made second landfall in Mexico as a tropical depression, it is expected to dissipate later today over land.

{{StormCarib}}

FAA / wx underground San Juan Radar

Added radar recording of Puerto Rico long range radar here.

Leewards/Martinique Radar recording for Irene Approach

See the Forecast Lounge for more speculation on Irene.

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Long term Central Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

Long term West Atantic wide area Water Vapor Satellite for Hurricane Season Peak flhurricane)

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