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Eye fix only 9 minutes apart by two difference planes has a 11nm difference in eye. Looks like an ERC is underway:



Vortex recon at 0:06Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 968mb (28.59 inHg) - Extrapolated
L. Eye Character: Open in the southwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 20 nautical miles (23 statute miles)


Vortex recon at 0:15Z

H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 970mb (28.64 inHg)
L. Eye Character (Undecoded): RAGGED
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles)

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That seems a little rapid, and perhaps it is, but such a fluctuation is not necessarily indicative of an eyewall replacement cycle, or even an imminent ERC. There is little suggestion that concentric eyewalls exist at this time (a requisite of a potential replacement cycle).

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