cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Re: Irene Turning More Northwest Over the Bahamas
Wed Aug 24 2011 05:53 PM
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Quote:
Originally the track had Maine in the "H" reading meaning it would be a cat 1 hurricane when she hit their area. Now it only has Mass and the lower portion of NH in the "H" reading, and Maine is a TS Status. Any clue on what New England should expect for this? I think a major concern here would be flooding, and worry a repeat of the 2006 floods may occur.
There are two primary reasons for the change from "H" to "S" over Maine, as follows:
First, the estimated location of the center of Irene during the final period of the 5-Day Cone of Uncertainty from Advisory 18 is now further inland than shown in Advisory 17A , and as such, Irene will have had more time inland weakening, essentially as Random C mentioned above. You can run a historic loop of the graphic Advisories here: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2011/graphics/al09/loop_5W.shtml
Second, and related to the first reason, Irene is officially forecast to have turned post-tropical by 2PM Monday. However, it is worth noting that this forecast is largely dependent on Irene being well inland at that time. Should Irene still be partly, largely, or fully over water, it is very possible that she would be more tropical than not, and as such, may still be a hurricane as of Monday afternoon.
As to what New England should expect, it is too early to tell for sure. Tropical Cyclone forecasts beyond 3 days are notoriously off by up to several hundred miles. As during all seasons, it is best to prepare for the worst and expect the best. Irene has the potential to be an epic east coast storm. Potential.
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