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Ian has made landfall as 150MPH Cat 4 w/ widespread inland gusts of 80-120+ MPH and record storm surge
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 0 (Ian) , Major: 0 (Ian) Florida - Any: 0 (Ian) Major: 0 (Ian)
27.2N 81.7W
Wind: 115MPH
Pres: 960mb
Moving:
Nne at 8 mph
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16.7N 34.7W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nnw at 10 mph
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cieldumort
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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2173
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico
      Wed Aug 31 2016 09:57 PM

As for location and direction, Hermine's center of circulation appears to be oval in shape, with what could be two primary lobes rotating about a mean center. The center itself may be rotating about its own axis, and the individual lobes also have been creating additional difficulty nailing down the exact center location, and motion. Apparent jumps in the center may be as much an illusion created by the elongated, multi-lobed nature of Hermine's core, as that of it trying to align with the deepest convection and mid-level circ. - Until this clears up, it may be helpful to focus on the overall motion of the entire system to determine its direction.

As for intensity, Hermine's intensification is running ahead of schedule. Official NHC forecast calls for 60MPH at 4PM CDT Thursday, but it is already looking likely that we see 60 or even higher by the 10PM advisory tonight. TS winds are very heavily weighted to the south to east regions of the storm, and extend well out from the center. Storm surge has already started on Cedar Key, and much of the state may experience higher surge totals than presently forecast, given the large expanse of winds blowing into the progressively shallower and shallower shore, not to mention the increasing risk of a hurricane prior to landfall.

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Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Hermine and Storm Surge MikeCAdministrator Wed Aug 31 2016 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Sat Sep 03 2016 12:31 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Fri Sep 02 2016 12:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico JMII   Fri Sep 02 2016 11:55 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico Ed DunhamAdministrator   Fri Sep 02 2016 10:37 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico Prospero   Fri Sep 02 2016 10:25 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Fri Sep 02 2016 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico cjzydeco   Fri Sep 02 2016 10:08 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico Colleen A.   Fri Sep 02 2016 12:20 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 08:17 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico JMII   Thu Sep 01 2016 05:39 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Sep 01 2016 05:13 PM
. * * Re: Hurricane Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Thu Sep 01 2016 04:09 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 03:22 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 02:41 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico dolfinatic   Thu Sep 01 2016 01:27 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico sfalcon   Thu Sep 01 2016 01:11 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 07:54 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico EMZelaya   Thu Sep 01 2016 07:50 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Thu Sep 01 2016 06:52 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico OrlandoDan   Thu Sep 01 2016 06:00 AM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 11:10 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 10:21 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico cieldumort   Wed Aug 31 2016 09:57 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico Robert e p   Wed Aug 31 2016 09:44 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico chase 22   Wed Aug 31 2016 09:16 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 08:00 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 07:24 PM
. * * Re: Tropical Storm Hermine forms in Gulf of Mexico MikeCAdministrator   Wed Aug 31 2016 06:49 PM

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