MikeC
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Posts: 4635
Loc: Orlando, FL
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Re: Invest 99L Lounge
Fri Aug 04 2017 11:34 AM
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!2Z GFS starting to roll in, starts off weaker than the last run, but recovers at 24 hours. (Yesterday's 12Z run already had it as a Tropical storm right now, and obviously that didn't happen)
By 48 hours, the position is about the same as the 6z run, but its a bit weaker. TD/tS vs hurricane.
by 96 hours it moves faster and a bit further south of the earlier run, this appears to be closer to the Euro run, although it is a strong Tropical Storm at this point. This run seems more realistic toward actual conditions than the prior run.
At 120 hours out it is much further southwest than the earlier run, and nearing the northern leeward islands, tropical storm strength.
Near/over St. Johns and Barbuda in the Leewards on Thursday morning as a Tropical Storm then moves over/near St. Kitts, toward the Virgin Islands.
Tropical Storm landfall on Puerto Rico Thursday night, then moves toward Hispaniola, by friday night it's over Haiti and getting torn apart. By Saturday morning the remains are over Guantanamo in Cuba.
By Monday, August 14th it emerges west of Cuba into the Gulf and gets a little stronger, maybe a TS again, then heads toward southeastern Louisiana with a TS landfall late afternoon on the 15th.
This is closer to the Euro run and much weaker (never gains hurricane strength) and stays weak.
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