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Although still very unlikely to develop or be very strong, there could be an area to watch in the in little more than a week out from energy currently associated with the systems in the East Pacific.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 607 (Milton), US Major: 607 (Milton), FL Any: 607 (Milton), FL Major: 607 (Milton)
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Posts: 2671
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Long Range 2026
      Mon Jun 08 2026 04:15 PM

Operational runs of our traditional models, along with their AI versions, are starting to focus on the potential for the Central American Gyre to spill out a vort lobe ~ brand- new and/or the remnants of East Pac Boris and/or Chrstina ~ into the Bay of Campeche, later in the current week, and suggest that the lobe could become better defined while in the western Gulf.

This is a very favored mechanism and location for tropical cyclone genesis early in a season, but even so, the setup often results in nothing more than a stretched out area of closed low pressure that at best gets classified as a T.D. Regardless of development, it could potentially bring additional heavy rains to portions of Texas that are already experiencing some isolated to scattered flooding and are susceptible. Additionally, longer-range runs of ensembles ~ sometimes inc a couple of the excellent Google DeepMind ensembles ~ do hint at the possibility of the forecast disturbance lingering or drifting back out over the northwestern Gulf and acting as a focus for TC genesis up there heading into next week.

My take this far in advance is that it is probably fair to say that the western Gulf has a 15% chance of TC development over the next 5-10 days. At this time, this is both too low and/or too far into the future for NHC to introduce a yellow zone. However, the western Gulf remains an area to keep eyes on.







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Subject Posted by Posted on
* Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator Mon Jun 08 2026 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 cieldumort   Mon Jun 08 2026 04:15 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 cieldumort   Tue Jun 09 2026 01:43 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Thu May 28 2026 08:00 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 03 2026 06:54 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Wed Jun 03 2026 04:18 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 04 2026 07:26 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Wed May 27 2026 06:42 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 cieldumort   Wed May 27 2026 01:37 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 cieldumort   Wed May 27 2026 02:20 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 cieldumort   Thu Jun 04 2026 02:24 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Thu Jun 04 2026 08:51 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Fri Jun 05 2026 07:08 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 CFHCAdministrator   Fri Jun 05 2026 04:13 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Sun Jun 07 2026 09:22 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 CFHCAdministrator   Mon Jun 08 2026 03:34 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 CFHCAdministrator   Tue May 26 2026 09:05 AM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 CFHCAdministrator   Wed May 20 2026 04:06 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 MikeCAdministrator   Fri May 22 2026 07:11 PM
. * * Re: Long Range 2026 scottsvb   Sun May 24 2026 08:01 PM

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