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Plenty of Fish in the Sea for Peter and Rose to date. Elsewhere, the remnants of Odette has a 30% redevelopment chance. 98L 70%.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 7 (Nicholas) , Major: 23 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1077 (Michael) Major: 1077 (Michael)
20.5N 65.0W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1009mb
Moving:
Wnw at 8 mph
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22.5N 37.7W
Wind: 40MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nw at 10 mph
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Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Northward Bound
      Fri Sep 26 2003 08:54 PM

Update - Saturday Evening

Hurricane Juan continues to look more impressive and I would think that the sustained winds are now approaching 80 knots. The 21Z advisory will probably nudge the forecast track a little to the west, which as Steve has noted, would create a significant problem for the city of Halifax, Nova Scotia. A strong storm surge up the Bay would create a serious flooding problem in that city tomorrow evening.

The westerly shear over TD 16 has relaxed a little and convection has built back over the center - which had been exposed earlier today. The 21Z NHC advisory will classify the system as Tropical Storm Kate with no significant changes in the forecast track - at least NHC was willing to make a quick adjustment to their intensity outlook for this system.

Invest 90L is still disorganized, but the pressure in the area has been falling at about one millibar every 6 hours. The tropical models have been very consistent in developing this tropical wave, with a slight westward adjustment on each run over the past 24 hours. If TD 17 develops near Cozumel, the folks in central and southern Florida need to really monitor what will likely become Tropical Storm Larry. Assuming development, it looks like landfall would be early Wednesday. If the Depression forms, I'll post more on this one in the Storm Forum.
ED

Original Post

Lots of areas of activity in the basin and its all heading north - or soon will be. Hurricane Juan is well east northeast of Bermuda and is heading north at 8-10 knots. Juan looks more tropical this evening than it has in the past couple of days. TD 15/Juan had a lot of subtropical characteristics when it started, but a separate and distinct core of convection has developed around the center this afternoon. Slight intensification in the next 18 hours as he heads north toward Nova Scotia with a gradual increase in forward speed.

TD 16 has been slow to evolve, but it is getting there and should become Tropical Storm Kate on Saturday. Movement is to the northwest, maybe even north northwest and a more northerly and eventually northeasterly trend is likely for this system.

Invest 90L in the Caribbean Sea with a mid-level circulation near 17.5N 83W at 27/00Z. Convection has been on the wane this evening, but the structure of the system has actually slowly improved. The mid-level center has been drifting to the north - perhaps just west of due north. If the system develops over the weekend (and it has a good chance - could be a future Larry), a slow curve NW-N-NE seems likely - possible problem for Florida, but it still has a long way to go in terms of development.

Weak non-tropical low off the Florida east coast could eventually do something, but the chances are rather low. GOM development seems less likely if the Caribbean system starts to get its act together. Lots of activity to watch and track this weekend.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF

DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Sep 27 2003 04:46 PM)

Post Extras Print Post   Remind Me!     Notify Moderator


Entire topic
Subject Posted by Posted on
* Northward Bound Ed DunhamAdministrator Fri Sep 26 2003 08:54 PM
. * * 90L, again AlexK   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:23 PM
. * * Re: 90L, again Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:08 PM
. * * 90L AlexK   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:31 PM
. * * Re: 90L jlauderdal   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:38 PM
. * * Re: 90L Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:45 PM
. * * airspace HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:28 PM
. * * weather master? HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:33 PM
. * * Re: weather master? 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 06:58 PM
. * * Re: weather master? stormchazer   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:23 PM
. * * Motion of 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:56 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:15 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:29 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:08 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L and Juan LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:01 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L and Juan HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 01:32 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:19 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc Hurric   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:24 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc rmbjoe1954   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:34 AM
. * * Will something form? LoisCane   Mon Sep 29 2003 09:43 AM
. * * Re: Will something form? Mary K.   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:04 AM
. * * Re: Will something form? HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 10:42 AM
. * * Reply TO HF jlauderdal   Mon Sep 29 2003 11:39 AM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF Steve   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:14 PM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:56 PM
. * * Re: Reply TO HF HanKFranK   Mon Sep 29 2003 12:58 PM
. * * Juan: Gone; Kate: Loopy; Hello Larry? LI Phil   Mon Sep 29 2003 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L etc Mary K.   Mon Sep 29 2003 08:47 AM
. * * Re: Motion of 90L Tropics Guy   Sun Sep 28 2003 08:06 PM
. * * Re: wrel BAMMD Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:37 PM
. * * Re: wrel BAMMD HURRICANELONNY   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:47 PM
. * * Re: Loops Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:14 PM
. * * Re: Loops 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:52 PM
. * * Re: 90L HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:39 PM
. * * Re: 90L jlauderdal   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:07 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Ed DunhamAdministrator   Sat Sep 27 2003 04:48 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 07:06 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:35 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:12 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Mary K.   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:03 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound jlauderdal   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:36 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:43 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound jlauderdal   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:18 PM
. * * Re: Northward Bound stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:52 PM
. * * systems go HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:16 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 01:37 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 02:36 AM
. * * Re: systems go Rich B   Sun Sep 28 2003 07:13 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:07 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:09 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:29 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:30 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:05 AM
. * * Re: systems go Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:24 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 12:07 PM
. * * Re: systems go Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:38 AM
. * * major correction HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:50 AM
. * * Re: major correction Storm Cooper   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:00 AM
. * * Re: major correction Mary K.   Sun Sep 28 2003 11:11 AM
. * * Re: systems go Steve   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:42 AM
. * * Re: systems go 57497479   Sun Sep 28 2003 09:55 AM
. * * ten a.m. HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:15 AM
. * * Re: ten a.m. HanKFranK   Sun Sep 28 2003 10:17 AM
. * * Re: Northward Bound stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:15 PM
. * * Larry Bud jlauderdal   Fri Sep 26 2003 09:08 PM
. * * Re: Larry Bud Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 27 2003 12:31 AM
. * * tropical depressions galore HanKFranK   Sat Sep 27 2003 02:21 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore Domino   Sat Sep 27 2003 02:55 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 07:15 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:01 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore 57497479   Sat Sep 27 2003 08:33 AM
. * * Re: tropical depressions galore Tropics Guy   Sat Sep 27 2003 09:45 AM
. * * carib HanKFranK   Sat Sep 27 2003 11:25 AM
. * * Re: carib stormchazer   Sat Sep 27 2003 12:57 PM
. * * Re: carib Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:22 PM
. * * NRL info AlexK   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:48 PM
. * * Re: NRL info Steve   Sat Sep 27 2003 03:58 PM

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