MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Danny Likely to Stay Close, But Offshore of the United States
Tue Aug 25 2009 08:32 AM
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11:00AM EDT 27 Aug Update
Danny has strengthened this morning and now has 60MPH winds, the center of circulation is again exposed, while the convection is mostly to the north and east.
The official position has moved a bit west, so today is another day of trying to determine where a real center for Danny will wind up. If the convection shifts west with the center then the likelihood of affects along the coast from the Carolinas northward increases.
The wave in the east Atlantic is now being tracked as 94L. Early indicators is that 94L will stay further south and west than the prior two wave systems. It has some shear in front of it, and the convection isn't the greatest right now. Something to watch into next week, however.
6:40AM EDT 27 Aug Update
Tropical Storm Danny's center has reformed more under the convection this mornig, making the center further north than before. Now that it may be settling, the track is starting to become more solidified.
It appears the US East coast will avoid the worst of Danny, with some possibility that parts of the coast may see some Tropical Storm Winds, although with most of the convection east and north of the center (Even now), even that may not be much. The system is nowhere near as strong as Hurricane Bill was, so there will be some increase in surf, but not quite as much as Bill caused.
Things could still change, so those along the coastline from the Outer Banks northward, especially around Cape Cod, should continue to watch for any changes in the track. The models are still handling Danny in general very badly The most direct threat for landfall, again after Bill, is Canada, particularly southern Nova Scotia. Those in Canada will want to keep track of it via our National Hurricane Center and your {{CHC}}.
The wave in the far east Atlantic is being watched, it may develop over the several days, but right now it has a <30% chance of development in the next 48 hours. It has not, as of this morning, been tagged with an investigation number.
9:40PM EDT 26 Aug Update
Danny is very disorganized tongiht, but still has winds northeast of the center around 45mph.
The forecast track is leaning toward staying offshore, but it may be a lot closer to land than Bill was. Those in the cone will want to watch the progress of Danny.
Danny itself has a very elliptical shape, with the center still toward the western side of all the convection, it is still fighting with an upper level low and dry air to its west, as well as generally stay weak until the movement begins.
This depends on a trough moving into the Florida Panhandle or not, if it slows down, Danny may miss its first opportunity to travel north and linger for a bit before being kicked up northward. Once it starts moving northward it will begin to accelerate. Danny is in a complex setup, but the most likely scenario is the track of the National Hurricane Center. I think it's pretty good, if anything, the timing may be off somewhat.
10:30AM EDT 25 Aug Update
Danny has formed from 92L east of the Bahamas.
There are no warnings are watches as of yet.
Danny's forecast track takes it very close to the east coast (from North Carolina northward) and New England, and the current track has landfall as a extratropical storm with possible category 1 hurricane force winds near the US/Canada border, just inside Maine. This track is west of most of the model projections.
Those along the coast from North Carolina northward into Canada will want to watch the progress of Danny.
There is enough uncertainty that anyone in the cone needs to pay attention to Danny.
It is expected to slowly strengthen, and after 24-48 hours start to strengthen more. Most of the convection is to the east right now, and it appears Danny is partially subtropical. Chance of staying offshore east of the coast into Canada is approx 53%.
If the current forecast track were to verify, North Carolina would likely not even see Tropical Storm Winds. But the confidence in the track isn't all that great now.
Outside of this, another wave has emerged off Africa that has <30% of development within the next 48 hours.
8AM EDT 25 Aug Update
As of 8AM, 92L is still a strong wave, another round of aircraft recon is on their way.
It is much more likely that the storm will be named today than it was yesterday, as possibly as early as 11AM. Visible satellite imagery and quikskat suggests it may be beginning to form a lower level circulation.
It appears the center is west and exposed (away from the convection).
It is still being negatively influenced by an Upper Level Low to the west, this is why most of the convection is on one side of the system.
Future track, most likely it'll stay east of land, but this may change.
6PM EDT 25 Aug Update
Recon has been flying around the wave east of the Bahamas, and finding fairly significant winds (Approx 55MPH), however the system as a whole currently looks like a broad gale low rather than a tropical system. It may be transitioning to a tropical system, and where the center eventually forms will determine what, if any, impact it has.
This system is a strong tropical wave, similar to what Hurricane Erin in 1995 formed from. Right now It has no organized low level circulation. It may generate one tonight, and if it does form into something tropical, it will likely been classified as a Tropical Storm directly. Recon aircraft are currently running flight patterns to help determine this. It is also interacting with an upper level low which complicates the situation.
Systems such as these are historically difficult to get a handle on initially, and until something forms folks in the Bahamas and Southeast should watch it.
However... Currently, the most likely scenario is that it will stay out to sea, but right up behind that is that the coastal Carolinas (specifically the outer banks of North Carolina) will want to watch this one most closely, as well as the Bahamas.
It seems very unlikely it could get further west than that.
Original Update
This morning's visible satellite imagery shows the wave east of the Bahamas (92L) as being better organized this morning, but surface observations do not show a low level circulation as of yet. There is aircraft recon going out this afternoon to better measure the system.
Early model runs are still unreliable, but the most likely situation is that 92L and whatever forms will stay out to sea with the confidence being low at this point. (Ie, odds are it will stay out to sea, but the odds are only slightly in favor of it)
Those in the Bahamas, Turks and Caicos islands will want to watch this system very closely.
The other wave in the west Caribbean likely will run out of time before landfall and not develop.
More to come later.
{{StormLinks|Danny|05|5|2009|1|Danny}}
{{StormLinks|94L|94|6|2009|2|94L}}
{{StormCarib}}
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