cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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Olivia Lounge
Wed Sep 05 2018 03:45 AM
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Above: Enhanced IR Hurricanes Norman and Olivia September 5, 2018 0715z
(Stop me if you've seen this paragraph before) An intense east Pac tropical cyclone, Olivia, looks increasingly set on a course towards the Hawaiian Islands, and thus we are now starting a thread on what could present one of the bigger tropical threats Hawaii has seen in many years, should current trends continue and model forecasts generally verify.
At the 800 PM PDT Tuesday September 4 2018 NHC Advisory, Olivia had maximum sustained winds of 125 MPH, and a minimum central pressure of 955 MB. Olivia is forecast by NHC to travel west to west-northwestward with increasing forward speed for the next several days through an area of higher shear, lower SSTs and drier air, resulting in sustained weakening, but is expected to still be a hurricane when she crosses over to CPHC's Area of Responsibility.
Our two generally most reliable global models, the ECMWF and the GFS, are continuing a trend in their longer ranges of bringing a still formidable Tropical Cyclone Olivia right into the Hawaiian archipelago on or about the middle of next week.
In the case of the ECMWF, Olivia is now depicted directly striking the Big Island as a 991 MB system on Tuesday September 12th. The GFS now has Olivia hit a little further north, striking O'ahu, which is home to Hawaii’s biggest city and capital, Honolulu, at the same intensity (991 MB) but on Wednesday September 13th.
These are model runs that are still many days out, and things could change a lot between now and then. These are not official forecasts, but are intended to provide us with information and educated best guesses. That said, the Central Pacific and Atlantic both appear to be in a phase of not only enhanced activity, but also of direct threats to land - which in Hawaii's case is especially hard to do given how small a point the islands are in the vastness of the Pacific Ocean - but, they happen to be situated roughly where a lot of the action is taking place this year. (See Lane and also 95L)
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