FFASJU) remains in effect for all of PR and the USVI. && .AVIATION Update...Mainly VFR conditions are expected to prevail. However, SHRA/TSRA could develop in and around all the terminals through Saturday night, causing brief to tempo MVFR conds. Mtn top obscd expected to continue across eastern and southern PR. The 05/00z TJSJ sounding indicated ESE winds up to 24 kt blo FL070. && .MARINE Update...Coastal buoys were indicating seas up to 5 feet across the Caribbean waters of the islands and up to 3 feet across the northern coastal waters. Winds were from the ESE at 10-16 kt. Winds and seas are expected to gradually increase overnight into the weekend, and Small Craft Advisories are in effect for most of the local waters. There is a high rip current risk for the beaches of southeastern Puerto Rico and Culebra. Elsewhere, there is a moderate risk. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 429 PM AST Fri Nov 4 2022/ SYNOPSIS... A Flood Watch is in effect for Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through Monday as unsettled weather conditions are expected to prevail. There is an increased risk for flooding and mudslides for the next several days. Marine conditions will also deteriorate due to increasing winds and the arrival of a northerly swell. Weather conditions will gradually improve by early to the middle of the next workweek. SHORT TERM...Tonight through Sunday... Unsettled weather conditions are in the forecast due to a strong mid to upper level trough now centered north of Hispaniola. In fact, the circulation of this feature is evident in infrared and water vapor satellite imagery. The trough will pull moisture from the south, favoring periods of showers and thunderstorms across the islands. As a result, a Flash Flood Watch is in effect. Since the soils are already saturated, additional rains will increase the risk for urban, river and flash flooding, as well as mudslides in areas of steep terrain. Due to the instability generated by the mid and upper level trough,a surface low pressure should develop north of the area, which should maintain a moist southerly flow prevailing through the weekend. The high resolution and global models agree on the wet pattern, but there are discrepancies in timing, amounts and location of the heaviest activity. So far, the southern and eastern portions of Puerto Rico, as well as Vieques, Culebra and the United States Virgin Islands should experience the bulk of the even, although all the region will be prone to flooding. The users are advised to stay tuned to further updates in the forecast during the weekend. LONG TERM...Monday through Friday.../modified from prev discussion/ The unsettled weather conditions may continue on Monday. Suppose the flooding rains event occurs throughout the weekend. In that case, saturating even more the soils and increasing the streamflows along local rivers, the risk of flash flooding and mudslides will extend through at least Monday evening. The confidence in the model guidance is moderate because the event is tight to the upper-level feature`s final position and the surface`s low-pressure evolution. That non-tropical low is being monitored by the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and might develop near the Northeast Caribbean or the Western Atlantic. It has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next five days (40 percent). Please refer to the latest Tropical Weather Outlook (TWOAT) issued by the NHC. This non-tropical low plays an essential role in the islands` weather scenario. Therefore, the confidence in next week`s weather scenario is even lower due to high uncertainty about this system`s future path/intensity. However, GFS solution insists on a southerly to southwesterly wind flow through late Wednesday night, from the southeast on Thursday, and more easterly by Friday. Moisture content is now even lower than the previous run cycle, and the upper-level dynamic seems weaker. Therefore, this period could be a transition to better weather conditions with just the typical afternoon convection. AVIATION...VFR cond will prevail at all terminals. FQT passing SHRA/Isold TSRA with SCT-BKN multi lyr cld lyrs nr FL025... FL050. BKN OCNL OVC nr FL100 across the local flying area. SHRA/Isold TSRA will cont VCTY of USVI and terminals.Aftn convection will continue to affect the eastern, central and nrn half of PR, including the TJSJ/TJBQ/TJNR terminals til at least 04/23Z. Brief MVFR expected at most terminals with Mtn Top obscr across the ctrl mtn range of PR. E-SE wnds btw 10-15 kts with ocnly hir gusts especially with convective activity. MARINE... Seas and winds are expected to increase tonight and tomorrow above small craft advisory criteria for the offshore waters, local passages and the waters north of the Virgin Islands. Expect seas up to 8 feet and sustained winds out of the south at 20 to 25 knots this weekend. Unsettled weather conditions are expected for the local waters as well, and seas could become locally hazardous close to the thunderstorms. For the beaches, the risk of rip currents will increase to high for southeastern Puerto Rico and Culebra tomorrow, and the high risk will stretch further on Saturday night and Sunday. && .SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PR...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for PRZ001>013. High Rip Current Risk from 6 AM AST Saturday through Saturday afternoon for PRZ003-012. VI...Flash Flood Watch through Monday afternoon for VIZ001-002. && $$ $$