RERJAX) issued for Jacksonville FL (JAX) for reaching 9th consecutive day with peak Heat Index of 110F or higher, breaking the previous record of 7 days set in July of 1981. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected to be roughly west of Highway 301. Isolated stronger storms will be possible this evening, capable of producing gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Convection will taper off after sunset with the loss of heating. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Tuesday... A slight relief to heat is expected, with max heat indices rising the Heat Advisory level (108-112 degrees) over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. High coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, with strong to isolated severe storms possible, especially north of I-10, as a front approaches from the northwest. Sea breeze formations and interactions will increase storm coverage over inland northeast Florida in the afternoon, and coverage/intensity will increase later in the day over southeast Georgia as the pre-frontal convection moves in. With high moisture and DCAPE values near 800-900 J/kg, the main threats will be wet downbursts and locally heavy downpours. Wednesday... Wet pattern continues with high precipitation chances over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia as the frontal system lingers over Georgia. Temperatures will finally fall to near normal, with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices close to Heat Advisory levels. Currently the Weather Prediction Center has NE FL and SE GA under a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Localized flooding will be possible from heavy downpours as well as training storms over grounds that are saturated from previous days. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 `Cooler` temperatures with highs near 90 degrees expected on Thursday as precipitation coverage remains heavy over NE FL and SE GA with the front staying nearby through Friday. A similar pattern to Wednesday is likely, with slightly less activity over inland SE GA. Southwesterly steering flow will shift southwesterly Friday night, and coverage will decrease each day Friday through the weekend, with north central Florida having the highest chances for diurnal thunderstorms each day. Drier air over southeast Georgia will keep storm coverage scattered, with PWATs likely below 2 inches Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 732 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Convection has weakened at TAF sites and currently has shifted all to the west over inland SE GA, so just VFR conds with convective debris clouds through the evening hours. Some rainfall at GNV/VQQ/JAX today may lead to some patchy MVFR fog around sunrise Tuesday morning, otherwise VFR through the morning hours with diurnal heating and decent atmospheric moisture should allow for VCTS by 17Z with TEMPO groups for TSRA at all NE FL TAF sites, while have held SSI at PROB30 groups for now with slightly lower rainfall chances. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the central and south Florida peninsula through tonight. A frontal boundary will then push southward towards the Georgia waters by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in gradually strengthening south southwest winds and waves of showers and thunderstorms that will likely continue through late in the week. Winds will approach exercise caution levels over the outer waters Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL beaches Tuesday, and a low to moderate risk at SE GA beaches. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Record high temperatures for our designated climate sites are listed below. In addition to near record highs, record high minimum temperatures will also be challenged. Mon 8/14Tue 8/15 ------------------------- Jacksonville 97/2019 99/1956 Gainesville 97/1918100/1918 Alma, GA 97/2007 99/1995 St. Simons 99/1995 97/2011 Craig Airport 97/2019 97/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 76 96 73 91 / 80 50 50 70 SSI 80 94 78 90 / 10 50 60 90 JAX 77 97 77 93 / 10 70 40 90 SGJ 78 95 77 92 / 10 90 50 90 GNV 76 94 75 91 / 10 80 50 90 OCF 76 94 75 91 / 10 80 50 100 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for FLZ020-021-023- 024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132-133-136>138-140-222- 225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM to 7 PM EDT Tuesday for GAZ132>136-149- 151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ $$