RERJAX) issued for Jacksonville FL (JAX) for reaching 9th consecutive day with peak Heat Index of 110F or higher, breaking the previous record of 7 days set in July of 1981. && .NEAR TERM... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Scattered thunderstorms are developing across the area this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected to be roughly west of Highway 301. Isolated stronger storms will be possible this evening, capable of producing gusty winds up to 50 mph and locally heavy rainfall. Convection will taper off after sunset with the loss of heating. && .SHORT TERM... (Tuesday through Wednesday night) Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Tuesday... A slight relief to heat is expected, with max heat indices rising the Heat Advisory level (108-112 degrees) over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia. High coverage of showers and thunderstorms will develop Tuesday, with strong to isolated severe storms possible, especially north of I-10, as a front approaches from the northwest. Sea breeze formations and interactions will increase storm coverage over inland northeast Florida in the afternoon, and coverage/intensity will increase later in the day over southeast Georgia as the pre-frontal convection moves in. With high moisture and DCAPE values near 800-900 J/kg, the main threats will be wet downbursts and locally heavy downpours. Wednesday... Wet pattern continues with high precipitation chances over northeast Florida and southeast Georgia as the frontal system lingers over Georgia. Temperatures will finally fall to near normal, with highs in the lower 90s and heat indices close to Heat Advisory levels. Currently the Weather Prediction Center has NE FL and SE GA under a Marginal risk of excessive rainfall on Wednesday. Localized flooding will be possible from heavy downpours as well as training storms over grounds that are saturated from previous days. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through next Monday) Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 `Cooler` temperatures with highs near 90 degrees expected on Thursday as precipitation coverage remains heavy over NE FL and SE GA with the front staying nearby through Friday. A similar pattern to Wednesday is likely, with slightly less activity over inland SE GA. Southwesterly steering flow will shift southwesterly Friday night, and coverage will decrease each day Friday through the weekend, with north central Florida having the highest chances for diurnal thunderstorms each day. Drier air over southeast Georgia will keep storm coverage scattered, with PWATs likely below 2 inches Friday through Sunday. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 242 AM EDT Tue Aug 15 2023 TEMPO groups of IFR to MVFR for GNV and VQQ have been issued for Early morning fog due to previous evening showers and should clear out after 11Z. VFR conditions will prevail for all sites until the early afternoon when TSRA will enter the TAF sites increasing in intensity and bring visibility and ceilings down to potentially IFR conditions until clearing out for NE FL around 23Z. MVFR conditions could stick around in SE GA for a while longer due to a cold front pushing into the area clearing out around 4z. Winds will mainly be out of the southwest shifting in the afternoon to a more southerly flow for the coastal sites as the sea breeze comes in. && .MARINE... Issued at 306 PM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Atlantic high pressure will continue to extend its axis westward across the central and south Florida peninsula through tonight. A frontal boundary will then push southward towards the Georgia waters by Tuesday and Wednesday, resulting in gradually strengthening south southwest winds and waves of showers and thunderstorms that will likely continue through late in the week. Winds will approach exercise caution levels over the outer waters Tuesday and Wednesday nights. Rip Currents: Moderate rip current risk for NE FL beaches Tuesday, and a low to moderate risk at SE GA beaches. && .CLIMATE... Issued at 317 AM EDT Mon Aug 14 2023 Record high temperatures for our designated climate sites are listed below. In addition to near record highs, record high minimum temperatures will also be challenged. Mon 8/14Tue 8/15 ------------------------- Jacksonville 97/2019 99/1956 Gainesville 97/1918100/1918 Alma, GA 97/2007 99/1995 St. Simons 99/1995 97/2011 Craig Airport 97/2019 97/2011 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 94 74 91 74 / 60 60 70 40 SSI 95 79 93 78 / 60 60 90 70 JAX 96 77 94 75 / 80 50 90 60 SGJ 94 77 92 75 / 80 50 90 60 GNV 93 75 91 74 / 90 40 90 40 OCF 93 76 91 74 / 90 40 90 50 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for FLZ020-021-023-024-030-031-033-035-038-122-124-125-132- 133-136>138-140-222-225-232-236-237-240-325-340-425. GA...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening for GAZ132>136-149-151>154-162-163-165-166-250-264-350-364. AM...None. && $$ $$