FFASJU).

https://forecast.weather.gov/wwamap/wwatxtget.php?cwa=SJU&wwa=flood%2
0watch

&&

.LONG TERM...Sunday through Thursday...

The forecast for the beginning of the week remains on track. Winds
should remain from the southeast, due to the high surface pressure
building in the Western Atlantic and the deep layered trough
northeast of the CWA. Based on the latest model guidance, PWAT
values will remain above normal (1.8 - 2.0 inches) due to high
low to mid-level moisture content. The ridging in the mid to high
levels is still expected, filtering drier air. However, the 500 mb
temperatures should continue between -7 and -8 Celsius, colder
based on climatology. Additionally, strong upper-level winds could
bring ventilation aloft and consequently increase instability.
The combination of available moisture, local effects, slowing
winds, and daytime heating will bring light to moderate showers
and isolated thunderstorms during the afternoon, mainly over
interior Puerto Rico. A transition to a more unsettled and wet
pattern by the second part of the week is still expected, with
another deep mid to upper level trough approaching the local area
by Tuesday into Wednesday. The latest model guidance solution show
a drier air mass filtering into the region. However, the
available moisture remains above climatological normals. Global
models strongly suggest well above normal moisture content pooling
into the region beginning on Wednesday. Additionally, extreme
forecast indexes (EFI) continue highlighting the significant
weather closer to the region during that period. There`s
confidence that the above normal moisture and mid to upper- level
dynamics should be enough to enhance deep afternoon convection
for the second part of the next workweek.

Due to saturated soils, above normal streamflows, and the
expected weather, the flood threat will remain elevated each day,
mainly for the interior of Puerto Rico.

The tendency of observing near above-normal temperatures in the
daytime continues, but the heat risk will remain low for the long
term forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...

(06Z TAFs)

SHRA/TSRA over the Caribbean waters may cause tempo MVFR conds
across the USVI terminals during the early morning hours. The sea
breeze convergence will cause +SHRA/TSRA development around noon
over the central portions of the islands, and MVFR to brief IFR
conds are possible once again along the southern terminals of the
islands. Mtn tops obscd and BKN/OVC lyrs btw FL040-200 expected.
Winds will remain ENE up to 13 kt with sea breeze variations along
the western and southern coastal areas, and stronger gusts near
TSTMs.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure building in the Western Atlantic and a
deep layered trough northeast of the region will continue
promoting light to moderate east- northeast to northeast winds for
the next few days. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to
develop across the local waters, producing locally higher winds
and seas. Small craft should exercise caution and stay weather
alert.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the beaches in
northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and now for St. Thomas and St. John
in the U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers must exercise caution due
to possible life- threatening rip currents along the surf zone and
stay weather alert.

The rip current risk will be low for the local islands by the end
of the weekend.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Friday morning for PRZ001>013.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

$$