FFASJU), Hazardous Weather Outlook (HWOSJU), Graphical
Hazardous Weather Outlook (https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=sju)

.LONG TERM...Monday through Friday...FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

No significant changes were made to the long-term forecast. The
synoptic pattern continues as expected, with a surface high pressure
building in the Western Atlantic that should move eastward and an
induced low lingering over the Central Atlantic. The mid to
upper- level trough highlighted by the global models for the past
few days is still expected to approach the CWA by Wednesday,
increasing instability aloft. The wind pattern will be variable,
as ENE winds will reduce by Tuesday and remain light for the rest
of the forecast period. Regarding the shower activity, the latest
global model ensembles showed an increase in uncertainty, with
some members going for a less aggressive solution compared to the
past few days. However, they still expect PWAT values to remain
near to above climatological normals (1.7 - 1.9 inches) throughout
the entire period. The temperatures in the 500 mb should increase
to seasonal values (around -7 Celsius) by Monday and Tuesday, but
will get colder by midweek (around -8 Celsius). Additionally,
stronger upper level winds should bring ventilation aloft,
increasing instability. Therefore, there`s confidence of
development of thunderstorms during the afternoons each day.

Windward sections can expect light to moderate showers
moving occasionally during the night and the morning hours, while
the deep afternoon convection will concentrate on the interior
portions of Puerto Rico. With the recent heavy rainfall, above-
normal streamflows, saturated soils, and the expected conditions,
the flood threat remains elevated mainly over the aforementioned
areas. There should be an improvement in the weather conditions by
Friday, as a drier air mass filters into the region, promoting
stable conditions across the local islands.

Seasonal temperatures should prevail for the rest of the forecast
period, with the heat risk remaining low across the CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...

(18Z TAFs)

Periods of SHRA and TSRA will result in MVFR and briefly IFR
conditions along TJBQ and TJPS. For TJSJ SHRA with VCTS will result
in lower ceilings, maintaining BKN/OCV lyrs btw FL020-F040 expected
until 02/23Z. Steering winds will have a more easterly component
today prevailing at the sfc and increasing btw 12-16 kt. Stronger
sustained winds btw 16-21 kt are expected tonight from 03/01z-
03/06z across the Atlantic and eastern waters btw PR and the
USVI.For tomorrow VCSH are forecasted for TIST and TISX from 03/10-
0315Z.

&&

.MARINE...

A surface high pressure building across the western Atlantic and a
deep layered trough northeast of the region will continue promoting
light to moderate east-northeast to northeast winds for the rest
of today. An increase in winds is forecast for tonight, resulting
in briefly winds up to 20 knots. For tomorrow, winds will persist
from the east up to 15 knots. Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop across the local waters, producing locally
higher winds and seas. Small craft should exercise caution and
stay weather alert.

&&

.BEACH FORECAST...

The moderate risk of rip currents will continue for the beaches in
northern Puerto Rico, Culebra, and St. Thomas and St. John in the
U.S. Virgin Islands. Beachgoers must exercise caution due to
possible life- threatening rip currents along the surf zone and
stay weather alert. The rip current risk is still expected to
gradually decrease this weekend into early next week.

&&

.SJU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PR...Flood Watch through Saturday morning for PRZ001>013.

VI...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

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