AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 1232 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 - Potential for elevated fire weather conditions over the Brush Country and western Coastal Plains daily through next week. - Moderate chances of fog over the Coastal Plains during the early morning hours. - Dry, abnormally warm weather continues through next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 A strong mid- to upper-level ridge will dominate through the upcoming week, leading to the persistence of dry, unseasonably warm conditons across South Texas. Subsidence associated with this feature will suppress any chances or precipitation. Only a brief, limited increase in moisture is expected Monday/Tuesday as a weak mid-level low over the southwestern Gulf weakens the ridge. This will allow or no more than isolated, low chances (~10%) for showers over area waters. Mostly clear skies and light winds overnight during this next week will promote the development of patchy fog, especially across the inland Coastal Plains, with any reductions in visibility improving shortly after sunrise. Day time conditions will remain quite warm, with highs generally ranging from the upper 70s along the coast to the 80s and 90s inland, and even hotter readings across far western portions of the Brush Country. A weak frontal boundary will stall north of our CWA late tonight into Monday, resulting in a 2-3 degree decrease in temperatures Monday and Tuesday compared to previous days. Southerly winds may become breezy at times due to the tightening surface pressure gradient associated with that front. By midweek, the ridge aloft will strengthen once again, reinforcing above-normal temperatures and continued dry conditions through the end of the work week. Elevated fire weather concerns will persist, particularly across the Brush Country, where low relative humidity and occasional breezy winds will support increased fire danger. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1230 AM CDT Mon Mar 23 2026 There`s a moderate chance (45%) for VSBYs to drop to less than 1/2SM across VCT/ALI and a low (30%) chance for less than 1/2SM at CRP overnight tonight/early Monday morning. VFR conditions should return around 14Z accompanied by light southeasterly winds this afternoon with gusts up to around 15-20KT. Followed by another round of overnight fog. && .MARINE... Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) south-southeasterly breeze will persist through tonight before a light to gentle flow (BF 2-3) sets up on Monday and Tuesday. Conditions rebound to a gentle to moderate flow by midweek, continuing through to next weekend. A brief, limited increase in moisture is expected Monday/Tuesday as a weak mid-level low moves over the southwestern Gulf, but this will allow for no more than isolated, low chances (~10%) for showers over area waters. Otherwise, rain chances are expected to remain negligible with wave heights between 2-4 feet. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 125 PM CDT Sun Mar 22 2026 Persistent ridging aloft will allow for abnormally warm conditions to continue across South Texas throughout the next week. Minimum relative humidity will consistently drop below 30% over the Brush Country each afternoon, with Energy Release Components (ERCs) in the 70-89th percentile and dry to critically dry fuels. With winds between 10-15 mph and gusts reaching 20-25 mph during the afternoon hours with the seabreeze, elevated fire weather conditions appear likely the next several days, especially across our westernmost zones. A Fire Danger Statement remains in effect for Jim Wells to Live Oak westward this afternoon and evening. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 63 85 66 85 / 0 0 0 0 Victoria 60 86 63 87 / 0 0 0 0 Laredo 65 92 65 95 / 0 0 0 0 Alice 61 90 63 92 / 0 0 0 0 Rockport 66 80 67 82 / 0 0 0 0 Cotulla 61 92 63 96 / 0 0 0 0 Kingsville 62 88 63 89 / 0 0 0 0 Navy Corpus 67 78 68 79 / 0 10 0 0 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...None. && $$ $$