AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 441 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes will continue into the weekend. - Mainly dry conditions along with near-normal temperatures will continue today. - Despite rainfall last week, the Florida Keys remain in Moderate Drought conditions. These conditions may worsen over the next couple of days due to lack of measurable rainfall for most locations. - A backdoor front will push through the Florida Keys late this weekend, supporting windy conditions, but little change in temperatures in its wake. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 CIMSS products shows low to mid level ridging remains across the Gulf and Florida early this morning. At the surface, strong high pressure is centered to the north of the Azores. The western side of this ridge is starting to become flattened on the northwest side as a frontal system moves eastward south of the Canadian Maritimes. Farther south, the ridge extends southwestward into Florida and the Gulf. Marine platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording northeast to east breezes near 10 knots as a result. GOES 19 Total Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows PWAT values ranging from 1 inch to 1.2 inches across the Florida Keys. This is right near the median for the date. KBYX radar has occasionally detected some light sprinkles across the Straits of Florida and near the Upper Keys earlier in the night. However, these have since fizzled out. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows some stratocumulus across the Keys resulting in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid 70s and dew points are in the upper 60s. .FORECAST... Surface high pressure will continue to dominate the pattern across the Florida Keys through at least Saturday. This will continue the gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes today. Breezes will begin to shift to the northeast overnight with this continuing through Saturday. Slight surges in moisture remain on track to occasionally move through the Keys resulting in slight chances of showers. Any showers will be brief and transitory with the timing on any of these showers remaining difficult to pin down. There are some indications in the hi-res model guidance of showers forming over the mainland tonight and again on Saturday which may move off and drift southwestward due to the northeasterly steering flow aloft. It remains to be seen just how robust this activity may be. The main risk with this activity will be the potential for frisky outflow winds due to quite a bit of dry air aloft. The best chances for this activity appears to be late Saturday and Saturday night based on the latest guidance. Therefore, if you have plans across the waters to the north of the Chain, some showers could approach from the northeast and bring a quick burst of gusty winds and a few quick downpours. Then a front approaching from the north will sort of pivot its way across Florida. It will take the strong Canadian high pressure building in behind it to help push it through the Keys sometime Saturday night or Sunday. As the high slides eastward and moves off the East Coast on Sunday, it will act to push the front southwestward (backdoor) sending it through the Keys. This will result in an increased pressure gradient across the area leading to a prolonged period of windy to potentially very windy conditions in the extended time frame. We expect the breezy conditions to begin Saturday night before becoming windy sometime Sunday and continuing well into the middle of next week. Moisture surges are also expected to move through the Keys in the easterlies resulting in episodic showers. It is still early but there are some indications for modest instability which may result in the risk for a couple thunderstorms. As a result, thunder was added to the nearshore waters north of the Chain for Saturday night. Stay tuned! && .MARINE... Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 There are currently no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect across the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, high pressure in the central North Atlantic will gradually shift eastward through Saturday, maintaining gentle to moderate northeast to east breezes across the Florida Keys coastal waters. A frontal boundary will approach from the northeast late Saturday into early Sunday, with a period of fresh to strong breezes expected in its wake, lasting through early next week. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 438 AM EDT Fri Mar 27 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. Near surface winds will remain northeast to east between 5 to 12 knots with occasional gusts of 15 to 20 knots. Slight chance for showers are in the forecast through the period, however, there is low confidence in timing and placement. VCSH was not included in either TAF as a result. && .CLIMATE... On this day on 1994, the daily record warm low temperature of 78F was recorded in Key West. Temperature records for Key West date back to 1872. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 20 Marathon 82 73 82 73 / 10 10 10 20 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$