AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 913 PM EDT Sat Mar 28 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Lowered tonight`s lows a few degrees. Otherwise, no significant changes to the forecast. - Increased Fire Danger is in effect for Sunday for portions of interior NE NC. In addition, a statewide Open Burning Ban has been issued for NC until further notice. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Dry weather continues into mid week with warming temperatures. 2) Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances later next week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 250 PM EDT Saturday... Key Message 1...Widespread sub-freezing temperatures tonight. Dry weather continues into mid week with warming temperatures. High pressure is settling into the area. Plenty of sun out there today, but it is on the chilly side especially with the breeze. Winds diminish to calm or light and variable later this evening through the rest of the night. This combined with clear skies provides good radiational cooling conditions, meaning another cold night. Did favor the lower side of guidance in light of this, resulting in overnight lows in the upper 20s for inland and more rural spots with temps right around freezing in urban areas and near the coast. Our Frost/Freeze program has not started here locally quite yet, but if you have already planted any sensitive plants, you will need to take precautions to protect them from the freeze Sunday morning. The good news is that temperatures will begin to moderate moving forward, with lower 60s expected for highs on Sunday, lower to mid 70s on Monday, and lower to mid 80s on Tuesday and Wednesday. Low temperatures will also remain milder during this timeframe. Dry conditions will persist through at least Wednesday morning. Key Message 2...Potentially more active pattern bringing the return of rain chances late next week. The latest model runs continue to trend more active and wet for the second half of next week. Initially, it looks like our rain chances will return later Wednesday evening into Thursday as high pressure moves offshore and a cold front settles into the region. Another system may potentially push in on its heels Thursday into Friday allowing rain chances to linger. It`s too early to nail down any exact details, but just know that we may become quite messy for a few days if the current guidance pans out - maybe making your Easter egg hunts a smidge muddy. && .AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 800 PM EDT Saturday... VFR conditions prevail for the 00z/29 TAF period. Winds have diminished significantly over the past few hrs, and will remain light and variable overnight. Winds turn to the SSW inland (and S/SE near the coast in SE VA and NE NC). Expect somewhat breezy conditions inland by aftn, with gusts to ~20 kt likely at RIC/SBY. Outlook...High pressure settles offshore Monday-Wednesday with SW flow returning. VFR conditions are expected to prevail through Wednesday morning. Rain chances increase late Wed and continue into Thursday. Flight restrictions will be possible. && .MARINE... As of 900 PM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: - A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect south of Cape Charles through 2 am Sunday. - A period of marginal SCA conditions may be possible across the Chesapeake Bay Sunday afternoon into early Monday. There is a better chance for SCA conditions later Tuesday through Wednesday ahead of the next cold front. Sub-SCA conditions are expected tonight through midday Sunday with high pressure in control of the weather pattern. Southerly winds increase Sunday afternoon/night into early Monday AM, potentially approaching low-end SCA criteria across the Chesapeake Bay. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday night into Wednesday with widespread SCAs possible. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering over or near the local waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER from Sunday morning through Sunday evening for NCZ012>014-030-031. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM EDT Sunday for ANZ656-658. && $$ $$