AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 238 PM EDT Mon Mar 30 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... - Updated aviation discussion. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week. 2) The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the work week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 230 AM EDT Monday... Key Message 1...High pressure gradually slides offshore while quiet conditions and moderating temperatures persist through mid-week. Early morning analysis shows the area of high pressure continuing to slide offshore while warmer and not-as-dry air is filtering back into our local area. Dewpoints as of this writing have risen from the 20s to the mid to upper 40s for most locations. Cloud cover has also increased as a shortwave is moving into the Mid-Atlantic. Hi- res guidance is still showing a slight chance of a light shower across the MD Eastern Shore through mid-day as this feature passes through. With the drier air in place, any rain that can make it to the ground will only result in light QPF. Southwesterly surface flow will allow high temperatures to warm into the lower 70s (upper 60s for the Eastern Shore). Some afternoon breezes to 20-25mph are once again expected. Min RHs won`t be nearly as low as they were yesterday, but in collaboration with neighboring offices and NC Forest Service, an Increased Fire Danger statement is in effect for interior NE NC counties west of the Chowan River through the daytime hours today as dry conditions will allow any fires to spread rapidly. Deeper southwesterly develops Tuesday as upper ridging builds into the Southeast. Highs will be in the lower 80s (70s Eastern Shore), about 15+ degrees above normal for this time of year. Breezy during peak heating hours, but RH values will not be as low as Monday, which should preclude any fire weather concerns. Key Message 2...The latest ensemble guidance has trended warmer with lower rain chances for the second half of the work week. Wednesday will start off dry as temperatures soar into the low to mid 80s (70s for the Eastern Shore). A cold front will approach from the northwest later in the day bringing a chance of showers with a few thunderstorms possible, especially across the NW half of the area. A shortwave moves into the Ohio River Valley/Eastern Great Lakes Thursday and Friday. However, latest guidance continues to trend stronger with an upper ridge over the region, which keeps the aforementioned cold front largely to our NW. Rain chances linger, but are not as high, and are greatest across the western/northwestern tier of the local area. Temperatures have trended warmer Thursday/Friday due to the decrease in rain chances. Both of the current GFS and Euro runs are very similar in showing the ridge breaking down a bit by Easter Weekend as a low pressure system strengthens over the Northern Plains/Great Lakes Region, sending a cold front our way. Timing details will likely change, but agreement is rather high for rain moving in during the afternoon of Easter Sunday. Under these conditions, Saturday would remain rather warm in the 80s, with a cool down starting Sunday depending on the timing of the front. Be sure to stay tuned to the latest forecast if you have outdoor activities planned for the holiday. && .AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... As of 140 PM EDT Monday... SCT-BKN mid-level cloud cover continues for most terminals this afternoon. A rogue shower or sprinkle, associated w/ a very weak disturbance aloft, is possible at RIC and SBY over the next hour or so. Given these would be very light, opted to not include any TAF mention at this time. SCT cloudiness persists through the night, with occasional clearing likely. SW winds will be quite gusty (to 20-25 kt) through this evening, remaining elevated into tonight. Also included mention of LLWS after 03z with a low-level jet overhead. Another similar day is expected Tuesday with gusty winds and SCT cloud cover. Outlook...High pressure remains offshore through Wednesday with SW flow continuing. Rain chances have diminished Wednesday through Friday and VFR conditions are likely to continue other than the chance for periodic flight restrictions in scattered showers/storms Wed aftn- Friday (mainly for northern terminals). && .MARINE... As of 235 PM EDT Monday... Key Messages: - Breezy conditions expected during the day, especially close to land, through at least mid week. - Additional rounds of S to SW surges during the overnight hours are expected tonight into Tuesday and Tuesday into Wednesday. SCAs have been issued for the northern coastal waters for tonight. Breezy conditions are ongoing this afternoon, especially near the land/water interface where mixing is better. Latest obs on the west side of the bay, along the rivers, and along the Atlantic coast where the wind is coming off the land (out of the SW) are around 18- 20kt with gusts up to 25kt. Meanwhile, further out in the water and on the east side of the bay, obs are 10-15kt with gusts to 20kt. SCAs were raised for the rivers for the rest of the daylight hours. Winds in the rivers should diminish to sub-SCA shortly after the sun sets and there`s not as much mixing. Later this evening/tonight, another southerly surge is expected with highest winds expected across northern waters. Wind gusts of 20-25 kt are expected across the middle/upper Chesapeake Bay and northern coastal waters. In addition, seas will build to 4-5 ft across the northern coastal waters, especially out 20 nm. SCAs have been issued for these areas starting later this evening. A stronger southerly surge is expected Tuesday evening into Wednesday with widespread SCAs expected. Winds likely remain elevated and gusty throughout the mid to late week timeframe with a frontal boundary lingering near or just north of the local waters. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...INCREASED FIRE DANGER until 7 PM EDT this evening for NCZ012- 013-030. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 7 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ630-631. Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM EDT this evening for ANZ635>638. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 10 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ650-652. Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 4 AM EDT Tuesday for ANZ654. && $$ $$