AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 126 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast each of the next several days. Thursday and Saturday have the lowest rain chances. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk beginning Wednesday through this weekend. Despite the warm and occasional sunny weather, the surf of 2-3 ft will be dangerous for all levels of swimmers. Heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety officials. - Any rainfall will be short-lived and spotty this week, providing no meaningful drought relief. Relatively higher rain amounts are likely Sunday-Monday. Severe to exceptional drought continues. && .UPDATE... Issued at 935 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Only minor tweaks to rain chances were made for this afternoon and evening. If a stronger storm can develop, then some gusty winds of 35-45 mph may materialize. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 An uptick in rain chances are forecast today-tomorrow thanks to a continued moistening low-level airmass fostered by maritime east to southeast flow, diurnal instability, and the afternoon seabreeze. Convective initiation focuses around the I-10 corridor then expands northward into SE AL & SW GA in a summer-like fashion via isolated to scattered showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms that should quickly diminish once daytime heating wanes. Modeled time- height cross sections show a wedge of mid- level dry air for Tallahassee-Valdosta-Panama City as opposed to a slightly deeper vertical moisture column at Dothan-Albany. The latter therefore has greater potential to be affected by convection capable of locally gusty winds compared to locations to their south. High temperatures are in the low to mid 80s. For late tonight into tomorrow morning, patchy to areas of fog aim to develop just east of Mobile Bay, then spread eastward towards the Lower AL/GA border and Eastern FL Panhandle. This activity then burns off within a couple hrs after sunrise amidst low temperatures in the low 60s. Moist confluent SE flow off the Gulf ushers another round of isolated to scattered convection that focuses the most over SE AL (~60% chance). Probability of precipitation decreases with SE extent, i.e., ~25% at Tallahassee & 10% at Cross City. High temperatures in the low to mid 80s are forecast once again. These warm conditions will make the beach an attractive destination. However, a high risk of rip current looms, so please be aware of what beach flags are flying and what they mean if visiting. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Patchy to areas of fog attempts to get going early Thursday morning, but current model guidance keeps the bulk of this activity along/south of the I-65 corridor at this time. Meanwhile, subtropical ridging noses westward from the Atlantic and appears to advect enough dry air aloft + subsidence to suppress convection Thursday afternoon. Exceptions are isolated to scattered showers with a couple of thunderstorms drifting northwestward from North- Central FL towards the Suwannee Valley. We currently have about a 20- 30% chance of rain forecast from Valdosta down to Cross City. For Friday, a weak upper impulse traversing the Lower MS Valley provides a focus for slightly better convective coverage (~25-40% PoPs along/north of I-10) followed by a temporary bout of subsidence in its wake. Rain chances are therefore on the low side (~15-25%) on Saturday. Come Sunday, an approaching frontal system from the west attendant to an extensive northern stream upper trough aims to bring potentially unsettled weather to the region. Global models currently show the front on a weakening trend upon arrival at the Tri-State area, hence the prospects for rainfall are not overly high at this time. A potential wave of low pressure traversing the Northern Gulf may end up being the "biggest" rainmaker early next week for our coastal strip into the Suwannee Valley. Stay tuned. Highs in the low to mid 80s and lows in the low 60s will be common through much of the long-term period. Frontal passage some time late Sunday or early Monday knocks down highs by several degrees with widespread 70s forecast outside of the extreme SE FL Big Bend. As a reminder, a high risk of rip currents appears likely at all local beaches amidst this warm stretch of weather, so keep that awareness in mind if visiting through the weekend. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 A few SHRA have developed near ECP and DHN. A few TSRA are possible near DHN this afternoon. Some of these SHRA may move into ABY late this afternoon. Patchy fog may develop tonight with the best chances near ECP and DHN. Other sites have TEMPOs for fog later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly breezes prevail the next few days with daily afternoon seabreezes and nocturnal surges off the Nature Coast. Surface high pressure anchored over Bermuda and the western Atlantic should foster generally favorable boating conditions away from any maritime convection. By Friday, southeasterly winds attempt to freshen west of Apalachicola ahead of an approaching frontal system and maintains that pattern through Saturday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Significant fire weather concerns are mitigated the next few days thanks to a prevailing moist easterly to southeasterly winds and afternoon seabreezes. Daily chances for showers with isolated thunderstorms remain in the forecast outside of a relative convective lull on Thursday. Wetting rains are not anticipated, but any convection will be capable of producing locally gusty winds. Minimum relative humidity should stay healthily above critical thresholds. High afternoon dispersions are expected Wednesday and Thursday. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 211 AM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Minimal rainfall amounts are forecast for the remainder of the week. Better chances for rain arrive late this weekend into Monday, however. Looking in the extended period, the CPC 8-14 Day Outlook shows probabilities leaning towards above-normal precipitation at 33- 40% mainly south to SE of the AL Wiregrass & Flint River Valley as of March 30th - valid April 7th-April 13th. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 83 63 84 62 / 10 0 20 0 Panama City 79 64 80 63 / 20 10 30 0 Dothan 82 61 83 61 / 50 20 50 10 Albany 85 62 85 61 / 20 10 30 10 Valdosta 85 62 86 61 / 10 10 10 0 Cross City 85 59 86 59 / 20 20 10 0 Apalachicola 74 64 74 63 / 10 0 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-114. High Rip Current Risk from late tonight through late Thursday night for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$