AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 229 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 - High Risk of rip currents begins Wednesday and continues through the weekend. Heed the beach flags and advice of beach safety officials. - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are forecast Wednesday. Better shower and thunderstorm coverage is forecast Friday and again Sunday as a few cold fronts approach the region. Rainfall won`t be enough to bring any relief to the ongoing drought. && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM ... (This Evening through next Monday) Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Isolated to scattered showers and storms are ongoing this afternoon with more anticipated Wednesday afternoon. Slightly drier conditions arrive Thursday before a cold front crawls our way before washing out Friday. Another cold front arrives Sunday, bringing another opportunity for rain to end the weekend. There are some indications of an area of low pressure forming along Sunday`s front in the northeastern Gulf, but there`s a fair amount of uncertainty as to whether the low is able to form close enough to provide additional rain to the area early next week. Temperatures will generally climb into the middle 80s each afternoon through Sunday before cooling back into the 70s. Overnight lows will generally be in the 60s before cooling into the upper 40s to lower 50s following Sunday`s cold front. There continues to be an H5 ridge over the southeastern Gulf. A weak shortwave is forecast to lift northeast from the Central Gulf towards our area later this afternoon into early Wednesday morning. Combine that with an axis 1.4" to 1.5" precipitable water values (PWATS) moving ashore in the Florida Panhandle and the seabreeze should lead to isolated to scattered showers and storms across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama this afternoon and again Wednesday afternoon. The mid-level flow is such that any showers/storms that happen to develop should drift north to northeast, so a few areas in southwest Georgia west of the Flint River also have the chance of seeing some much needed rain either later today or Wednesday. The 1000-700mb Mean Relative Humidity (meanRH) shows a plume of drier air arriving Thursday afternoon, which should limit shower and thunderstorm potential and coverage. A cold front approaches the area Friday afternoon. However, most of the upper-level support is forecast to lift well north of the area. A subtle area of vorticity gets left behind over southern Mississippi and Alabama. However, the 1000-700mb meanRH values aren`t forecast to increase too much above 50-60%, so have limited shower and thunderstorm chances to around 30-40% with the highest chances in the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama. Another plume of drier air arrives over the region Saturday, limiting rain chances even more to start the weekend. Another cold front approaches the area Sunday, this time with a little more upper-level support. Which isn`t saying much, but we`ll take what we can get at this point. It`s also worth pointing out that we`ll be at the base of an H5 trough over the eastern third of the country, allowing the vorticity to get strung out along the northern Gulf Coast. A weak perturbation that moves out of Texas and along the northern Gulf Coast, allowing an area of low pressure to form in the eastern/northeastern Gulf. If we can be in the right position on the northern side of this system, then rain chances (and totals) would increase Monday into early next week. However, there`s not a tremendous amount of ensemble support for this scenario as most ensembles either delay the development of the low until it`s east of Florida or forms it way too far south. But, this forecaster is attempting something new and being a little more optimistic as much of the area remains in a rainfall deficit nearing or exceeding a foot since the water year began on October 1st, 2025. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 119 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 A few SHRA have developed near ECP and DHN. A few TSRA are possible near DHN this afternoon. Some of these SHRA may move into ABY late this afternoon. Patchy fog may develop tonight with the best chances near ECP and DHN. Other sites have TEMPOs for fog later tonight into early Wednesday morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions prevail. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds prevail the rest of the work week. Nightly easterly wind surges will bring near Cautionary winds to the waters west of Apalachicola in the morning hours of Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. A cold front stalls before passing through the northeastern Gulf on Friday, leading to more southerly winds late Friday into Saturday. A more robust cold front arrives Sunday, allowing winds to turn more northerly Sunday and Monday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 Moist easterly to southeasterly winds prevail the rest of the week and into the weekend. Daily afternoon seabreezes turn winds more southerly, especially across the Florida Panhandle. The best chance for showers and storms Wednesday is forecast to be along that seabreeze, or across the Florida Panhandle into southeastern Alabama and portions of southwestern Georgia, mainly west of the Flint. Pockets of high dispersions are forecast along the I-75 corridor Wednesday with more widespread high dispersions forecast Thursday. MinRH drop from 40 to 50 percent Wednesday afternoon to 30 to 40 percent Thursday afternoon as slightly drier air arrives ahead of stalling front on Friday. This stalling front will bring a few showers and thunderstorms to the area, especially across our Southeastern Alabama Districts. Another opportunity for rain presents itself on Sunday as another cold front nears the region. Patchy fog is a concern Wednesday morning, mainly across the Florida Panhandle and southeastern Alabama. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 227 PM EDT Tue Mar 31 2026 No significant flooding is forecast the next several days. While rain chances are in the forecast, rainfall totals are generally forecast to be less than 0.5", if that, for most of the region. Those lucky enough to get under a shower or storm this afternoon or Wednesday have the best opportunity of picking up a quick 0.25" to 0.5", but those will be very isolated pockets and won`t do much to alleviate the ongoing drought situation. Slightly better rain chances from a stalling front are in the forecast Friday, with the better rain chances currently forecast across southeastern Alabama. A similar story is in the offering Sunday as a more robust cold front moves through. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 63 84 62 84 / 0 20 0 0 Panama City 64 80 63 80 / 0 20 0 0 Dothan 61 83 61 84 / 20 40 10 10 Albany 62 85 61 85 / 20 30 10 0 Valdosta 62 86 61 86 / 20 10 0 10 Cross City 59 86 59 87 / 20 10 0 20 Apalachicola 64 74 63 74 / 0 10 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-114. High Rip Current Risk from 1 AM CDT Wednesday through late Thursday night for FLZ112. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$