AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 700 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 - Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, is forecast to focus along/west of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin this morning. Exercise caution if commuting. - Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast each of the next several days. Thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds and perhaps small hail this afternoon. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, burns off later this morning mainly along/west of the ACF basin. A 1000-500-mb moisture plume supports another round of isolated to scattered showers with a few pulsy thunderstorms capable of strong- gusty winds and perhaps small hail are expected again this afternoon. Convective evolution should be similar to what occurred yesterday - initiation along the seabreeze front, then a progression to multi-cell clusters drifting northward into SE AL & SW GA into the evening. Weak summertime-like steering flow amidst unseasonably warm temperatures support multiple storm outflow boundaries capable of producing additional cells. High temperatures are forecast to be in the low to mid 80s with lows in the low 60s. Beachgoers should be cognizant of a high rip current risk. Fog attempts to encroach on the I-65 corridor into the Wiregrass and east of I-75 Thursday morning, then give way to mostly sunny skies through the afternoon. Scatted showers with perhaps a couple of isolated thunderstorms push northwestward into the Suwannee Valley from North-Central FL where there is expected to be less subsidence influence by the subtropical ridge anchored across the Western Atlantic. Widespread highs in the mid 80s are forecast away from the immediate coast - isolated upper 80s over the SE FL Big Bend. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday through Tuesday) Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Lingering showers are possible Thursday night into Friday morning from remnant afternoon convection moving in from the SE. Better convective coverage is likely the remainder of Friday thanks to an upper impulse traversing the region ahead of a progressive broad trough across the Central Plains. The best rain chances are along/north of I-10 at 35-50%. Drier weather temporarily presides over much of the Tri-State area on Saturday thanks to an influx of dry air ushered in from the western Atlantic subtropical ridge following the departure of Friday`s disturbance aloft. By Sunday, a strong surface cyclone racing from the Great Lakes into Eastern Canada drags an extensive frontal boundary into the region. Scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms should be accompanied by this front. Severe weather is questionable given the rapidly fleeting upper-level support. Although frontal passage occurs some time Sunday afternoon- evening, rain chances linger into early next week as southern stream upper impulses streak across the northern Gulf attempt to form a wave of low pressure. High temperatures are forecast to be in the 80s Friday-Saturday with a slight west-east maxT gradient on Sunday and more uniform, albeit cooler highs in the 70s by Monday. Lows in the low 60s persist through the weekend before dipping into the 50s Monday- Tuesday. A high risk of rip currents lingers through at least the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 620 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 LIFR/VLIFR in fog/low clouds at ECP/DHN this morning with brief MVFR possible at VLD. TSRA close enough to ECP/ABY for VCTS, with highest confidence in TSRA at DHN with a TEMPO group, all this aftn/evening. Winds SSE 5-10 kts through the TAF period. With a similar pattern Cannot rule out another round of fog/low clouds at DHN/ECP late tonight, but the pattern may favor a setup further west. With that, cannot rule out restrictions at the remainder of terminals, so confidence is lower in terms of potential outcomes. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the north following frontal passage and increase to advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Significant fire concerns should be minimal thanks to continued pattern of low-level east to southeast flow, afternoon seabreezes, and daily chances for diurnal showers/thunderstorms. The lowest rain chances are Thursday and Saturday, but thankfully min RH is expected to remain decently above critical thresholds. High afternoon dispersions are forecast the next 3 days with the most widespread LDSI occurring on Thursday. An approaching frontal system late this weekend looks to produce wetting rains for parts of the Tri-State area on Sunday. The Central Timezone counties stand the best chance at this time. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 AM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast into early next week. The best overall chances for rain arrive Sunday from an approaching frontal system. The latest forecast amounts mainly range from about a quarter to half inch (isolated higher, especially in SE AL). These amounts, while much welcomed, will do little to improve our ongoing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 63 84 65 / 10 10 0 10 Panama City 80 63 80 64 / 20 0 0 0 Dothan 84 61 84 62 / 40 20 10 0 Albany 85 61 85 63 / 10 10 0 10 Valdosta 86 61 86 64 / 10 0 10 10 Cross City 87 59 88 63 / 0 0 30 30 Apalachicola 74 64 74 65 / 10 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for FLZ007>012- 108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late Thursday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065>069. GM...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for GMZ735-751. && $$ $$