AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 130 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 - Patchy to areas of fog, some of which may be locally dense, is forecast to focus along/west of the Apalachicola-Flint River basin tomorrow morning. Exercise caution if commuting. - Daily isolated to scattered afternoon showers with isolated thunderstorms are forecast Friday through Sunday. Thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds and perhaps small hail. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting. && .UPDATE... Issued at 1010 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 The only change of note was updating PoPs over the next few hrs to account for a stubborn batch of convection extending from the Wiregrass to west of the I-75 corridor. Slow-moving thunderstorm clusters have produced locally heavy rain at Albany where the ABY airport has picked up over 1.5 inches since 827PM EDT. That amount is 40+ percent of the normal April monthly total, and it`s happening on the first day, no joke! && .SHORT TERM AND LONG TERM... (This Evening through next Tuesday) Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Unseasonably warm temperatures and moisture advection from the Gulf support another round of showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. These pulse-like thunderstorms may produce occasional strong wind gusts and should follow a similar evolution to yesterday`s convection; storms pop up along the sea breeze front and gradually drift northward into our AL and GA counties. Expect additional storm initiation along the outflow boundaries of some cells. Overall, rain totals Will be around 0.5 inches with isolated spots receiving up to 1 inch. Although this rain is much needed, drought conditions are not expected to improve. Convective activity should dissipate by this evening. Another round of patchy fog is expected to set up early Thursday morning in the FL Panhandle and SE AL. This pattern of early morning patchy fog is expected to continue through Friday. High temperatures are forecasted in the mid 80s and low temperatures in the low 60s across the CWA. These unseasonably warm temperatures persist thanks to upper level ridging and drier conditions in place Thursday. Winds are generally out of the SE, except for the seabreeze along the FL Big Bend and Panhandle. On Friday, a broad upper-level troughing pattern pushes a weak cold front eastward through the CWA. Upper level vorticity seems to support development of thunderstorms ahead of the front, although it may fizzle out as it moves eastward. Again, these thunderstorms are not expected to improve drought conditions. And speaking of drought, this weak cold front ushers in temporarily drier weather by Saturday and RH deceases across the region. A strong upper-level trough makes its way across the CONUS this weekend, and an associated cold front arrives to our CWA by Sunday. This front will be stronger and more impactful than the previously mentioned front from Friday. Thunderstorms accompany this frontal passage, though severe potential seems limited due to a lack of upper-level support. Can`t rule out some strong gusty winds and a few isolated cells with heavy rain. Temperatures decrease, with highs in the 70s early next week. Early next week, there are some indications of lingering vorticity in the upper levels which allow rain chances linger through next Tuesday. && .LONG TERM... && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 110 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Expect some MVFR restrictions in fog this morning at ABY, ECP, and DHN - ABY due to the recent rainfall with support from guidance. For DHN, a brief period of MVFR around sunrise. The aforementioned restrictions are due to fog. Elsewhere and otherwise, expect VFR through the period. Winds on Thursday Southeast, except becoming southerly at ECP/TLH and eventually DHN due to the seabreeze. Some VCTS near DHN during the evening on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 The surface high in the western Atlantic maintains gentle to moderate easterly to southeasterly breezes through this weekend with daily afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. This flow regime causes elevated wave heights, with occasional 3-4 ft wave heights. A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly turn northerly following frontal passage and increase to advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 On Thursday, high dispersions are forecast across much of the CWA as a slightly drier air mass allows min RH to drop to about 35% - 40%. Fire weather concerns are minimal Friday thanks to southeast flow, afternoon seabreezes, and daily afternoon thunderstorms. On Saturday, a drier air mass is ushered in by a weak cold front, however, RH remains above critical thresholds. On Sunday, a stronger cold front supports higher PoPs and the potential for a wetting rain for parts of the CWA. Some shortwave troughing early next week supports continued chances for showers and thunderstorms, keeping fire wx concerns low throughout the forecast period. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 255 PM EDT Wed Apr 1 2026 Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms are forecast into next week. Highest chances for a wetting rain is on Sunday, with the passage of a cold front. Rainfall is expected at about a third of an inch to an inch. There are no flooding concerns associated with this frontal system. Although this rain is much needed, drought conditions are not expected to improve. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 64 84 64 / 0 10 40 10 Panama City 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 20 0 Dothan 84 62 83 62 / 10 0 40 10 Albany 85 63 84 64 / 0 10 50 20 Valdosta 86 63 86 63 / 10 10 50 10 Cross City 87 62 87 62 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 74 64 75 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$