AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 220 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 - Daily morning fog is forecast through the remainder of the workweek around the western and eastern flanks of the Tri-State area Exercise caution if commuting. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today and Saturdaywith greater convective coverage on Friday and especially Sunday. Rain chances linger into early next week. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 A relative lull in convection is anticipated today as a plume of mid- level dry air advects in from the west via subtropical ridging off the Western Atlantic. The best rain chances (15-45%) are from the inland Western FL Panhandle into SE AL where some deeper-layer moisture resides this afternoon. Some showers with perhaps a couple thunderstorms may encroach on the Suwannee Valley, moving NW from North-Central FL. Prior to that, patchy fog persists until mid to late morning over parts of the FL Panhandle & SE AL. Another similar round is anticipated tomorrow morning with parts of SW GA in the crosshairs. High temperatures are forecast to be in the mid-to-upper 80s (isolated 90 possible around Cross City). Lows merely dip into the low 60s. Better convective coverage is on tap for us Friday afternoon in response to an upper impulse lifting NE across the region amidst greater available moisture, adequate diurnal instability and afternoon seabreeze forcing. Rain chances are maximized at ~44-55% from the Eastern FL Big Bend to north of the I-10 corridor. Showers and thunderstorms will be capable of strong-gusty winds, locally heavy downpours, and perhaps small hail. High temperatures should be a couple degrees cooler thanks to thicker cloud cover and better prospects for precipitation. As a reminder, beachgoers are urged to be cognizant of what color beach flags are flying and what they mean, as a high risk of rip currents lingers despite the warm inviting weather. && .LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Fog once again is likely to form Saturday morning in a similar fashion to recent days, followed by a mostly dry afternoon. The main exception appears to be over SE AL into the Flint River Valley where a plume of residual deeper-layer moisture is modeled to reside. However, convection looks to be isolated at best with rain chances up to 25% at this time. High temperatures rebound to the mid-upper 80s. A large surface cyclone lifting from the Great Lakes into Eastern Canada drags an extensive cold front into the region on Sunday. This boundary will be accompanied by scattered to widespread showers with embedded thunderstorms and collectively give us the best chance of meaningful rainfall over the past several days. Severe weather remains questionable with this system given the fleeting upper-level support and some uncertainty on frontal timing. An afternoon passage would support better potential for strong to severe storms as diurnal instability would overlap with adequate forcing. Stay tuned. By Monday, ripples within the southern stream mid-upper jet likely force a wave of low pressure off the TX coast that traverses eastward across the Gulf. The presence of this feature maintains mentionable rain chances in the forecast early next week despite frontal passage as an overrunning type pattern takes shape. The track of this wave will dictate the axis of highest precipitation placement, which currently favors the coastal strip and Suwannee Valley. Highs in the mid 80s will be common this weekend with lows in the low 60s. Expect relatively cooler temperatures to usher next work week as highs drop to the 70s and lows dip to the 50s. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Expect some MVFR restrictions in fog this morning at ABY, ECP, and DHN - ABY due to the recent rainfall with support from guidance. For DHN, a brief period of MVFR around sunrise. The aforementioned restrictions are due to fog. Elsewhere and otherwise, expect VFR through the period. Winds on Thursday Southeast, except becoming southerly at ECP/TLH and eventually DHN due to the seabreeze. Some VCTS near DHN during the evening on Thursday. && .MARINE... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the north following frontal passage and increase to at or near advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy weather is likely to persist into mid week from a wave low pressure traversing the Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and seas increase on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 A mostly dry and very warm to hot afternoon is expected today outside isolated showers and thunderstorms from the inland western FL Panhandle into SE AL. Some convection may move from North- Central FL into the SE FL Big Bend as well. Minimum RH is forecast to range from the mid 30s to mid 40s away from the immediate coast. East to southeast winds prevail into the weekend with daily afternoon seabreezes contributing to southerly to southwesterly wind shifts. High afternoon dispersions are expected across the Eastern FL Big Bend, lower I-75 corridor, and the Wiregrass Region. Better chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms are on tap for tomorrow afternoon, especially from the Suwannee Valley to north of the I-10 corridor. Convection will be capable of frequent lightning, strong-gusty and erratic winds, and locally heavy downpours. Convective coverage notably decreases on Saturday as only isolated showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms focus mainly over SE AL into the Flint River Valley. High afternoon dispersions are expected mainly along the I-75 corridor. An approaching frontal system on Sunday likely brings scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms - some of which could be strong. The Western FL Panhandle, SE AL, the Flint River Valley currently stand the best chance of experiencing a wetting rain as the front passes through the region. Expect a wind shift out of the north Sunday evening into Monday morning in the front`s wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The best chances for rain over the next several days are Friday and Sunday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. An update to the Drought Monitor will be released later today. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement Additional rainfall is likely early next week, especially along the coastal strip into the Suwannee Valley. Current amounts range from about two-thirds of an inch to an inch and a quarter (isolated higher). Values are subject to change, up or down. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 64 84 64 / 0 10 40 10 Panama City 80 64 80 65 / 0 0 20 0 Dothan 84 62 83 62 / 10 0 40 10 Albany 85 63 84 64 / 0 10 50 20 Valdosta 86 63 86 63 / 10 10 50 10 Cross City 87 62 87 62 / 10 10 40 10 Apalachicola 74 64 75 66 / 0 10 10 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$