AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Key Messages: - Unseasonably warm, dry, and breezy to windy conditions this week improve behind a cold front with deep moisture this weekend. - Showers and thunderstorms are expected Easter weekend and early next week, with rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, and locally higher amounts near 3 inches, by Tuesday morning. - Adverse marine conditions across the Laguna Madre and Gulf Waters with breezy to windy conditions and this weekend`s cold front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 BLUF: Above normal temperatures and generally rain-free conditions will continue through at least Saturday across Deep South Texas. However, a notable pattern change will bring unsettled weather beginning late Saturday afternoon and night and continuing into early next week. This will result in widespread precipitation chances across Deep South Texas this Easter weekend, as well as a potential for locally heavy rainfall and isolated flash flooding. In addition, notably cooler temperatures are expected Easter Sunday into early next week. Persistent low level southerly to southeasterly flow will continue to advect Gulf moisture towards the region, which will maintain warm and humid conditions through Saturday afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient in response to a deepening upper level trough and attendant surface features will further amplify the influx of rich, Gulf moisture, as well as maintain breezy conditions. Wind speeds and gusts should remain below Wind Advisory criteria, but it will still be windy with gusts up to 30-35 MPH through Friday evening. Otherwise, the combination of highs in the 80s and 90s and increasing humidity will maintain a minor (level 1 of 4) to moderate (level 2 of 4) heat risk through Saturday. For those participating in any outdoor/holiday activities, remember to stay hydrated and take frequent breaks in the shade. The aforementioned upper level trough is expected to track towards the Central Plains by Friday afternoon and towards the Great Lakes region through the weekend as the attendant cold front translates toward Deep South Texas. Ahead of the cold front, precipitable water values across Deep South Texas will be anomalously high for early April with values ranging from 1.7-2.0 inches, well above the 90th percentile of climatology. The cold front is expected to approach the Northern Ranchlands late Saturday afternoon and evening, and Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning across the Rio Grande Valley. Precipitation chances should increase from northwest to southeast as the frontal boundary interacts with the warm and anomalously humid airmass in place. A few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out along the cold front with a threat of gusty winds and hail, but overall the primary concern is the threat of localized flash flooding due to locally heavy rainfall. Deterministic and ensemble guidance remain in agreement of the window of highest rain chances (70-90%) being Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. While there continue to be varying solutions, the overall set up continues to favor training showers and thunderstorms as the cold front translates across the region. Probabilistic guidance indicates there is a medium chance (40-60%) of 24-hour rainfall amounts greater than 1 inch through Easter Sunday morning, and a low chance (20% or less) of 24-hour rainfall amounts greater than 2 inches through Easter Sunday morning. There remains some uncertainty on the precipitation forecast among guidance for Easter Sunday overall as there are two potential scenarios. The first scenario the cold front is slower to exit the region, which would likely maintain continued rain chances into Easter Sunday afternoon and evening. The second scenario the cold front exits the region by mid morning or early afternoon, and stratiform precipitation is more isolated to scattered. There should be more clarity over the next 24 hours or so in regards to the evolution of this event as it is captured by high resolution guidance. Rain chances into early next week will also depend on the placement of the cold front and presence of moisture content. As far as rainfall amounts, most areas should see anywhere from 1-2 inches Saturday night through Tuesday morning, with most of the rainfall Saturday night into Easter Sunday morning. Isolated higher amounts close to 3 inches cannot be ruled out (10% chance or less), especially if slow- moving, training convection develops across an area. This may result in isolated flash flooding or minor flooding/runoff issues. Otherwise, temperatures on Easter Sunday through early next week will be around 10-15 degrees below normal for early April. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 VFR will prevail through late this evening at all TAF sites. Another round of MVFR ceilings should develop once again tonight after 06-08Z and continuing through at least 14-15Z tomorrow. Expect persistent breezy southeasterly winds in response to an enhanced pressure gradient through the TAF period with sustained winds around 15-20 knots and gusts up to 30-35 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 PM CDT Thu Apr 2 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect for the Laguna Madre and Gulf waters through 4 PM this afternoon as winds and seas remains elevated in response to a tight pressure gradient. Conditions should fall below Advisory criteria overnight, but occasional gusts to 20 knots cannot be ruled out. Small Craft Exercise Caution to Small Craft Advisory conditions continue into tomorrow as the pressure gradient remains tight in response to a deepening upper level system. A cold front approaches this weekend, bringing increased rain/storm chances, rough seas, and elevated winds. A Small Craft Advisory is likely this weekend. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 73 88 73 88 / 0 0 30 10 HARLINGEN 70 91 70 91 / 0 0 20 20 MCALLEN 75 94 75 94 / 10 0 30 30 RIO GRANDE CITY 72 96 73 93 / 10 10 20 50 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 73 80 73 80 / 0 0 20 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 71 86 71 86 / 0 0 20 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ130- 132-135-150-155-170-175. && $$ $$