AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 727 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 - Daily morning fog is forecast through the remainder of the workweek around the western and eastern flanks of the Tri-State area Exercise caution if commuting. - Isolated showers and thunderstorms expected today and Saturday with greater convective coverage on Friday and especially Sunday. Rain chances linger into early next week. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk is expected to continue at all local beaches. Please heed the beach flags if visiting. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Friday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Some generally drier air will suppress shower activity this afternoon, with the possible exception of SE AL and the western Panhandle, where PWATs are just high enough to allow some isolated showers and possibly a thunderstorm or two. Later tonight, some remnant showers and storms from seabreeze activity in Central Florida will drift NW into the Suwannee Valley, but ending by around 04z. Patchy fog is possible overnight for much of the area, but mostly in the FL Panhandle and SE AL. Tomorrow, a pocket of deeper moisture moves into our area from the southeast, which will allow more widespread convection. Isolated morning showers are possible in the eastern half of the region, followed by more widespread showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon as the seabreezes push inland. PoPs are highest (50-70%) along the I-75 corridor, with chances generally topping out around 30-50% elsewhere. Locally heavy downpours, strong gusty winds, and small hail are possible. Daytime temperatures will be slightly lower than the past few days due to the widespread cloud cover, topping out in the low 80s. On Saturday, another round of drier air moves in from the Southeast as it rotates around the subtropical high in the W Atlantic. Meanwhile, a cold front attached to a large mid-latitude cyclone over the upper Midwest approaches the area, pushing deeper moisture into the area from the northwest. Accordingly, some isolated showers and thunderstorms are possible Saturday afternoon are highest (30- 40%) in SE AL, the inland FL Panhandle, and parts of SW GA. Further south and east, rain chances are minimal. The lack of widespread convection will push max Ts back up a few degrees into the mid-80s across the region. Despite otherwise warm, enjoyable weather on area beaches the next few days, a high rip current risk persists through at least Saturday. Beachgoers should be on alert and pay particular attention to beach flags. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The aforementioned cold front will push through the Southeast on Sunday. Despite plentiful moisture, at the moment the dynamics appear otherwise remarkably unhelpful for producing any widespread rainfall. Pulses of mid-level vorticity associated with the front vanish on approach to our CWA, at the same time as the front`s southward push weakens due to the shortwave trough over the Great Lakes starts to lift northeast. The result is lower rain chances than many would hope for in the midst of extreme to exceptional drought conditions. Showers and embedded thunderstorms are still likely Sunday afternoon in SE AL, SW GA, and the western FL Panhandle, with PoPs from 60-80% in those areas. As the front moves through the rest of the area Sunday evening and overnight, rain chances drop to 30%. If timing moves earlier in the day, more widespread precipitation would become a possibility, with some potential for associated severe weather. But, for the time being, it looks like a relatively dry frontal passage for most of the area. On Monday and Tuesday, with some pulses of energy moving along the front stalled just to our south, we could see some isolated showers and storms, with the main focus being along the coastal Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Otherwise, very dry air behind the front keeps rain chances low or nonexistent in our Alabama and Georgia counties. Another shortwave trough over the Midwest will push the front fully away from our CWA late Tuesday, ushering in dry weather on Wednesday and Thursday. Temperatures will cool off in the wake of the front, with lows in the 50s throughout the week, and highs in the low to mid-70s on Monday slowly increasing to the upper 70s by Thursday. Dew points will also plummet into the low to mid-40s on Tuesday, potentially even reaching the upper 30s in our northernmost counties, making fire a potential concern for the early parts of next week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 724 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through most of the night. Some low ceilings and/or patchy fog with MVFR conditions are expected at TLH and VLD early Friday morning with VFR returning later in the morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected for Friday afternoon with the highest chances (50-70%) at VLD and ABY. && .MARINE... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 A persistent subtropical ridge of high pressure maintains gentle to moderate easterly breezes through this weekend with daily afternoon seabreezes and nightly landbreeze surges. A passing front some time Sunday afternoon or evening causes winds to veer southerly and southwesterly. Winds then quickly freshen out of the north following frontal passage and increase to at or near advisory levels west of Apalachicola by Monday morning. Rainy weather is likely to persist into mid week from a wave low pressure traversing the Gulf. The chances for advisory winds and seas increase on Tuesday. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 325 PM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 Better chances for more scattered showers and thunderstorms are on tap for tomorrow afternoon, especially from the Suwannee Valley to north of the I-10 corridor. Convection will be capable of frequent lightning, strong-gusty and erratic winds, and locally heavy downpours. Convective coverage notably decreases on Saturday as only isolated showers and perhaps a couple thunderstorms focus mainly over SE AL into the Flint River Valley. High afternoon dispersions are expected mainly along the I-75 corridor. An approaching frontal system on Sunday likely brings scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms - some of which could be strong. The Western FL Panhandle, SE AL, the Flint River Valley currently stand the best chance of experiencing a wetting rain as the front passes through the region. Expect a wind shift out of the north Sunday evening into Monday morning in the front`s wake. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 215 AM EDT Thu Apr 2 2026 The best chances for rain over the next several days are Friday and Sunday, which will be much welcomed given our ongoing extreme to exceptional drought conditions. For more local drought information & statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement Additional rainfall is likely early next week, especially along the coastal strip into the Suwannee Valley. Current amounts range from about two-thirds of an inch to an inch and a quarter (isolated higher). Values are subject to change, up or down. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 64 83 65 84 / 20 50 10 10 Panama City 64 81 65 81 / 0 30 0 10 Dothan 61 83 63 85 / 10 40 10 40 Albany 63 83 64 86 / 10 50 30 30 Valdosta 64 84 63 86 / 20 70 20 10 Cross City 63 86 62 88 / 30 60 10 10 Apalachicola 66 75 67 75 / 10 20 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Saturday night for FLZ108-112- 114-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$