AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 123 AM EDT Fri Apr 3 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes since the previous update. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Marginal risk of increased fire danger across the coastal plain today. 2) Mostly dry with above normal temperatures through Saturday. 3) A cold front will push through the area late this weekend into early next week, bringing increasing rain chances, cooler temperatures, and the next best chance for marine headlines. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1...NCFS burn ban remains in effect statewide until further notice. RHs have failed to drop below 40% this afternoon and winds have stayed just below criteria. Fire weather risk will be marginal for the next couple of days, and IFD issuance may still be needed in subsequent forecasts. KEY MESSAGE 2...Dry and warming forecast through the remainder of the work- week, with model consensus keeping the high anchored offshore, precluding any precip associated with a weak frontal boundary that is forecast to approach, but not reach, ENC. Though isolated diurnal showers will be possible each day given the pattern, the chance is too low to include in explicit forecast. Best chance, albeit below mentionable in the grids, will be later in the week (THU-SAT) as trough approaches from the west. This trend also favors warmer conditions across ENC. Above normal temperatures will continue into the weekend, with high temps mostly in the low to mid 80s inland and 70s for the beaches. MinTs generally around 60. A few records could be threatened through the rest of the week - see the CLIMATE section for details. KEY MESSAGE 3...A cold front will approach the area Sunday, moving through later Sunday evening into early Monday. Increasing shower chances Sunday and Sunday night, along with isolated thunderstorm potential ahead of the front. QPF amounts are trending somewhat lower from the previous forecast but forcing still appears strong enough to warrant continued categorical PoPs for the period. NBM has caught on to the trend in deterministic guidance of the low pressure system expected to develop and travel along the front early next week, passing far enough offshore to keep the area mostly dry early next week. Low level thickness values and N-NE flow behind the front will lead to below normal temps with highs mostly in the 60s early next week. && .AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... Have made some minor tweaks to the forecast tonight based off the latest guidance with biggest change being the removal of the TEMPO MVFR vis group across EWN/OAJ. Think if any fog does develop it will be ground fog (MIFG) with little to no impact to operations across the Crystal Coast. With this in mind, have kept the 6SM MIFG in the OAJ/EWN TAFs to account for this threat, but have it starting closer to 9Z and dissipating by 13Z. Worth noting is sea fog near the Nern coastal waters overnight. This seafog may spread over NOBX terminals. This fog has a higher incidence rate within the model suite and may reduce VIS to IFR or lower over NOBX terminals like FFA and MQI. Otherwise expecting a primarily VFR TAF through the period. Much like the previous few days, any ground fog/seafog that develops is forecast to quickly dissipate after sunrise with a diurnal Cu field developing across ENC by mid morning. Ceilings likely remain somewhere between 3.5-4.5 kft and cloud deck is either SCT/BKN this afternoon before clouds dissipate this evening giving way to mo clear skies Fri night. South winds may occasionally gust up to 20kt during the afternoon Fri, but sustained, and frequent, gusts to 20kt are not expected. Winds quickly ease after sunset falling to 5-10 kts Fri night. Low threat of an additional round of ground fog/seafog Fri night as well given similar weather pattern. Outlook: We do remain under VFR conditions through Sat. Best chance for sub VFR conditions occurs Sun into Sun night with a frontal passage. This front will bring a threat for low clouds and reduced visibility as SHRA/TSRA impacts the area. Gusty winds out ahead of the front on Sun will also be possible with gusts up around 20-25 kt currently forecast. Winds do ease Sun night but will shift from a SW to NW direction behind the frontal passage. Lighter winds and VFR conditions then return early next week. && .MARINE... Latest obs show Serly winds generally 5-10kt inside, 10-15kt with some higher gusts over outside waters N of Cape Lookout with seas 3-5 ft. High pressure will remain anchored offshore through the first half of the weekend, keeping light to moderate S-SWerly winds in place through the period. Serly winds remain in place FRI generally 10-15kt gusting up to 20kt during peak heating. With the evening update, have added sea fog to Wx grids based off latest guidance and previous VIS forecast iteration. This fog could be dense at times and conditions will need to be monitored for possible Marine Dense Fog Advisory issuance. Nern coastal waters are only area of concern, though in the early morning hours, fog may advect across NOBX and into Nern sounds. Outlook (Saturday into Tuesday): SSW winds will increase through the day Sat into Sunday ahead of an approaching cold front. FROPA is expected late SUN into MON, which is the next best chance of SCA conditions both ahead of and behind the front. SCA conditions could begin as early as Saturday night. A minority of guidance does depict a minor risk of gales (10-20%), although this is confined to the warmer Gulf Stream waters. Front will be accompanied with showers and tstorms. N-NE winds will develop behind the front and continue through mid next week. && .CLIMATE... Record High temps for 4/2 (today) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/2014 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 77/1986 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 88/1974 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 78/1953 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1974 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 90/1978 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/3 (Friday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 89/1963 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 79/1974 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 81/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 90/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1967 (NCA ASOS) Record High temps for 4/4 (Saturday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 92/1934 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 78/1945 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 90/1967 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 80/2007 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 92/1934 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 89/1963 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...None. && $$ $$