AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 319 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Widespread rainfall this weekend associated with a cold front - Much cooler tonight through Monday - Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding tonight through Sunday Morning && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Medium to high rain and thunderstorm chances remain in the forecast for this afternoon through Sunday with the approach of a frontal boundary into our area. This front currently extends from an Eagle Pass to Seguin to near La Grange line, and will be entering our CWA in the next couple of hours. Deep moisture convergence ahead and along the boundary, moderate instability, and little capping will allow for a few of these storms to become strong to severe at times as the boundary sweeps into our area this evening. SPC has the majority of South Texas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe thunderstorms through early Sunday, with strong winds and large hail being the primary threats. In addition, locally heavy rainfall will be of concern as well tonight through Sunday with WPC including all of South Texas under a Marginal Risk for Excessive Rainfall (level 1 of 4). Although our soils are critically dry, high rainfall rates in a short time could still result in nuisance flooding mainly over low lying or urban areas. The most likely scenario will bring beneficial rainfall for portions of the Coastal Plains and Brush Country, with rainfall totals around 1-2 inches with isolated amounts to 3 inches. Though, flash flood guidance is very high (2.5-3.5 inch/hr), and most of the rain should be absorbed by the soils. It will be much cooler tomorrow and Monday, with drier conditions inland through much of next week. Highs tomorrow (Easter Sunday) are forecast to range from the mid 60s out west to the low 70s along the coast, with overnight lows in the upper 40s to upper 50s areawide. Onshore flow will resume Tuesday, bringing back slightly deeper moisture and warmer temperatures. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A mixture of VFR to MVFR conditions will prevail across area terminals through the cycle. A cold front will move through the area this late afternoon into the evening hours resulting in increased chances for showers and thunderstorms through Sunday. Winds will be out of the south to southeast ahead of the boundary, then shifting north to northeastward and becoming gusty at around 20-25 knots in its wake. && .MARINE... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Winds will shift to the northeast tonight and strengthen to fresh to strong levels (BF 5-6) into Sunday morning in the wake of a passing cold front. Winds are forecast to relax to moderate levels Sunday night into Monday, with the flow shifting onshore Tuesday night and becoming gentle. Rain chances will increase tonight (60-90% chance) through Sunday, before gradually diminishing to a low to medium chance (20-50%) Monday into Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 227 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A cold front is expected to sweep across South Texas this afternoon into the evening hours and bring back cooler temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain chances also return. Relative humidity values in the wake of the front will remain above critical thresholds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 59 67 56 68 / 60 80 70 30 Victoria 57 69 53 72 / 60 40 40 10 Laredo 57 63 55 67 / 80 80 70 20 Alice 58 67 54 70 / 60 80 70 30 Rockport 62 72 58 74 / 60 70 60 30 Cotulla 56 66 54 70 / 60 70 50 20 Kingsville 58 66 55 67 / 70 80 70 30 Navy Corpus 63 69 60 70 / 70 80 80 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ $$