AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1002 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezy conditions will continue overnight, before winds decrease for the remainder of the weekend. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all Keys marine zones. - Although passing showers are possible, especially overnight, significant rainfall is not expected through the weekend. - There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Breezy conditions are expected once again by Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Deep mean layer ridging remains in place across the western North Atlantic. The center of this ridge was near Bermuda with the western side of this ridge extending westward into Florida and the eastern Gulf. Marine observations platforms surrounding the Island Chain are recording easterly breezes near 20 knots as a result. CIMSS Mimic Precipitable Water (TPW) products shows a slug of deep moisture currently streaming westward through the Bahamas and along the northern coast of Cuba. The leading edge to this deeper moisture is just beginning to encroach on the Keys this evening. KBYX radar has remained active through the afternoon and evening with occasional showers affecting the Island Chain from time to time. For the most part, this activity has remained across the marine area. GOES 19 Nighttime Microphysics imagery shows stratocumulus moving from east to west through the Keys resulting in partly cloudy skies. Temperatures along the Island Chain are in the mid to upper 70s and dew points are near 70 degrees. .SHORT TERM FORECAST... The 00z evening sounding shows decent low level moisture before drying out some above 900 mb and then drying out even further above approximately 725 mb. The sounding is unstable with lapse rates of 5-7 degrees Celsius per km and CAPE values around 1200 J/kg. While we have increasing moisture moving into the area, the more robust upper level support is anticipated to remain east of the area across the Bahamas. Therefore, even though, we will see an increase in moisture, showers may become more widespread, but thunder will remain minimal. There might be a shower or two that is able to become a thunderstorm overnight but the trigger needed to really get things going is expected to stay east. Therefore, we have moisture and instability across the area but lack the trigger or upper level energy to support more robust convection. If all 3 of these synced up, it would be off to the races tonight. Also, due to the slug of moisture moving in, PoPs were increased for the Sunday to Monday time frame this update and might need to be increased further. Due to the breezy conditions and partly cloudy skies along with nuisance showers, min temperatures were also increased from lower to mid 70s for overnight. Breezy conditions were also extended through the overnight since gusts are still approaching near 20 knots. && .MARINE... Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for all the Florida Keys coastal waters. From synopsis, a broad Atlantic high will continue to weaken and move eastward. There is high confidence that moderate to fresh easterly breezes overnight will slacken by Sunday morning. Light to gentle breezes early next week will freshen once again by Wednesday in response to a strong second area of high over the eastern United States. A chance of showers will return to the forecast by Monday night, and thunderstorms are possible after the start of the work week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 1000 PM EDT Sat Apr 4 2026 VFR conditions are expected to prevail at both EYW and MTH terminals through the TAF period. There are some indications for occasional periods of MVFR CIGs overnight with a potentially longer period of MVFR CIGs during the day on Sunday. While a shower or two cannot be ruled out for either terminal overnight or Sunday morning, latest guidance suggests a better chance for showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday evening. Due to the low confidence in timing and placement, VCSH was left out of the TAF for now. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 82 73 83 73 / 10 20 20 30 Marathon 82 73 82 74 / 10 30 30 30 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Sunday for GMZ031>035- 042>044-052>055-072>075. && $$ $$