AFDLIX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service New Orleans LA 1242 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 - Warm with showers and thunderstorms ending today. There is a low threat locally heavy rainfall and one or two severe thunderstorms early this morning morning. - Northerly winds behind a cold front today have necessitated Small Craft Advisories beginning this evening, which could continue further into the week. - A prolonged period of easterly winds could increase the coastal flood threat on east facing shorelines by mid week. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Monday night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Showers and storms beginning to weaken this morning causing the severe storm risk to lower. The cold front is currently from Natchez to Alexadria then down into SE TX with sh/ts well ahead of it. This activity will slowly sink to the coast today with some lingering showers at the coast by sunset. Everyone should get some rainfall today that has been much needed. A sfc low will get organized along the thermal gradient near Brownsville this morning and start to move east. The sfc front will be well out over the gulf by Monday but the sfc low will sling a lot of moisture over this shallow isentropic boundary to keep the cloud cover in through Monday. High pressure will continue to slowly press south through the day Monday sending the cloud cover into the gulf by Monday night or Tue. Highs today and Monday will be brought back to around 70F with a bit of a chill to the lows in the lower 50s and even some upper 40s north tonight and Monday night. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through Saturday night) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 The biggest concern in the long term will be a continued threat of at least minor coastal flooding due to a spring tide cycle combined with persistent east to southeasterly winds. Though it`s too soon to say exactly how high water levels may rise before high tides start lowering, those who live in low lying coastal areas should continue to monitor the forecast. Otherwise, a continued gradual warming trend and a return to much warmer than normal temperatures can be expected to end the work week. Afternoon temperatures will warm into the low to mid 80s by Saturday, which is about 10 degrees above normal for this time of year. Morning lows will be similarly anomalous, only cooling into the low to mid 60s by Saturday morning. Regarding rain chances, latest trends have been toward a slightly wetter forecast, especially Wednesday night through Thursday night as moisture streams northward in response to a weak mid level disturbance lifting from northern Mexico toward the Great Lakes region. Still quite a bit of spread in the ensembles regarding where the best moisture convergence will be, and thus, where the greatest rain chances will be. Current forecast calls for best rain chances to be west of the local area with generally isolated coverage locally. However, these values could be adjusted upward if disturbance is a little slower to lift northward. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A mix of IFR and MVFR cigs will lift to VFR by noon today. There will remain a high chance of SHRA with isolated TSRA through the afternoon hours which could cause some tempo IFR conditions. Cigs will be over the area all day and most of tonight but should be in MVFR to VFR range by mid to late afternoon. All of the sh/ts activity should move to the coast by sunset today with only showers lingering near coastal terminals. Fropa will bring norherly winds to the area today and this will be timed in the current taf package. && .MARINE... Issued at 1149 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 Southeast winds around 15 knots and seas of 2 to 4 feet will lower today as a cold front approaches the coastal waters. Behind the front, north to northeast winds will increase to 20 to 25 knots for most waters, and Small Craft Advisories have been posted for this Sunday night through Monday. Northeast winds will start the week and slowly become easterly through the week remaining moderate to high, ranging from 15 to 30kt, through much of the week bringing hazardous marine conditions and headlines for much of the week. && .LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LA...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ530-532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 PM Sunday to 7 PM CDT Monday for GMZ532-534-536-538-550-552-555-557-570-572-575-577. && $$ $$