AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 223 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through the rest of the weekend. - A moderate to strong easterly breeze will bring continued hazardous conditions to the Atlantic waters through Sunday afternoon. - An unsettled pattern is becoming increasingly likely next week with periods of gusty winds and heavy rainfall possible across portions of South Florida. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A mid-level shortwave trough will swing across the upper Midwest on Sunday afternoon. The progression of this system is what will bring about a wetter period across the Atlantic coast of Florida early to middle of next week. Ridging across the western Atlantic will begin flatten over the weekend as the trough encroaches eastward, and an area of low pressure fills in an area along and east of the Bahamas. Predominantly easterly winds will persist under this pattern, but with the surface pressure gradient off the Atlantic coast diminishing, winds look to weaken into the 10 to 15 kt range. Some stronger gusts of 20 to 25 kts over the waters, may keep seas a bit on the choppier side, with wave heights of 6 feet. A slug of deeper moisture will stay strewn across the Peninsula through the end of the weekend, with current guidance indicating PWATS between 1.4 to 1.6 inches. Local sounding climatology indicates these values to be close to the 90th percentile for this time of year. So, similar to the last few days, another round of scattered showers is to be expected during the afternoon. Hi-res model soundings show steep low level lapse rates and modest instability for for a few thunderstorms to develop, but forcing and mid level instability looks to be lacking for anything strong or severe. Some light showers during the morning will move west from the Gulf Stream, but most convection will focus along mesoscale sea- breeze boundaries and outflows. The highest confidence area for storms according to HREF ensemble probabilities is along the Gulf breeze in Collier county and northwards towards Lake Okeechobee. As the main mid-level trough axis pushes through the Rust Belt on Sunday night, a surface cold front will be moving across north Florida. There may be some enhanced moisture and slightly better forcing over South Florida on Monday as the trough approaches. However, most convective activity will once again focus along the Gulf Breeze and interior parts of the state. Some locally heavy downpours may produce accumulations of 1 to 2 inches. Overall chances for showers across the region will be a bit higher than the past few days, with 50 to 60% PoPs throughout South Florida by Monday evening as the front sags into central Florida. Scattered showers will likely continue overnight as the front looks to stall somewhere between central and southern Florida by Tuesday morning. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Much wetter conditions are forecast for the beginning to middle of the week as the frontal boundary stalls over South Florida. Aloft, another shortwave perturbation will swing across the state on Tuesday, pushing through a lobe of vorticity which will help to invigorate shower activity throughout the region. Meanwhile, a 1035 to 1040 mb post-frontal surface high will be strengthening over the mid-atlantic states. This will induce a secondary backdoor frontal push across the Atlantic waters, with wind speeds surging into the 25 to 30 kt range by Wednesday. NBM has been a bit more bullish on winds, with the deterministic output displaying Gale force conditions across the waters. However, NBM ensemble probabilities only show about a 50% to 60% chance of wind speeds exceeding 30 kts, and that`s mainly for the Atlantic waters near Palm Beach and northward. Global models and LREF ensembles show even less confidence for strong winds, with probabilities of exceeding 30 kts only in the 30% to 40% range. As a result, have capped wind speeds across the waters at 30 kts for now. Yet, with breezy winds near 30 kts, Small Craft Advisories are very likely across the Atlantic, along with a High Risk of Rip Currents throughout most beaches. These breezy winds will persist through at least Thursday, before the pressure gradient starts to weaken by Friday. Going back to the rain threat, WPC has highlighted a Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall along the Atlantic coast of Florida for Days 4 and 5 (Tuesday through Thursday). The combination of the stalled front, anomalously high PWATS of 1.6 to 1.75 inches, and coastal convergence along the Atlantic (in tandem with diurnal sea breeze circulations), could lead to a heavy rainfall threat. The main area of concern will be along coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and Dade counties. Mid level flow also shifts back from the west while surface flow will remain easterly, this could lead to a coastal convergence setup where several storms remain pinned along the coastline and precipitate heavy amounts for several hours. The majority of ensemble clusters are showing the hot spot for heaviest rainfall to be along the east-central Florida coast between Melbourne and Palm Beach. One less likely set of solutions (about a 20% chance) shows that the band of heavier rainfall could set up near Dade and Broward if the front stalls further south. The majority of ensemble guidance indicates that the most likely scenario for rainfall amounts will be between 1 to 2 inches on Tuesday thru Thursday, with locally heavier amounts of 2.5 to 3.5 inches. However, the high end scenario (90th percentile) shows up to 5 inches and more widespread across the metro, which may lead to some urban flooding concerns. Mid-level troughing and above average moisture looks to persist through the end of the week, which would keep wet conditions in place each day through Saturday. Rain amounts become a little more uncertain as drier air aloft begins to push into the region by the weekend, but overall amounts should be trending lower compared to what is observed in the middle of the week. By the end of the period, guidance is hinting at high pressure beginning to build over the Gulf, lowering rain chances and increasing temperatures. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Aside from some isolated MVFR ceilings from some passing clouds, all sites are forecast to remain VFR through the period. Conditions will remain breezy from the southeast for most eastern locations. A few light showers could pop up around the area early in the morning, but most stronger convection during the afternoon will be confined to the interior and western parts of South Florida. && .MARINE... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Breezy easterly winds will persist across the Atlantic through Sunday morning, before conditions begin to diminish during the afternoon as the pressure gradient relaxes. During this same time frame, a moderate breeze will be observed over the Gulf waters. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic waters due to sustained winds expected at 20-25 kts. Isolated to scattered showers may develop across the Atlantic and move inland, but most convection during the afternoon should remain over inland Florida and along the Gulf Breeze in southwest Florida. Seas across the Atlantic waters will mainly be in the 4-6 ft range while Gulf seas are forecast to remain in the 2-3 ft range. && .BEACHES... Issued at 203 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 The high risk for dangerous rip currents will continue at all Atlantic beaches through this weekend as gusty onshore winds persist. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 82 71 83 70 / 40 30 60 60 West Kendall 84 67 85 67 / 40 30 60 60 Opa-Locka 83 70 85 70 / 40 30 60 60 Homestead 82 71 83 70 / 40 30 50 50 Fort Lauderdale 80 72 81 70 / 40 30 60 60 N Ft Lauderdale 80 71 82 70 / 40 30 60 60 Pembroke Pines 84 72 86 70 / 40 30 60 60 West Palm Beach 81 70 82 69 / 30 30 60 70 Boca Raton 80 71 82 70 / 40 30 60 70 Naples 86 68 85 67 / 50 30 60 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173. AM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT this afternoon for AMZ650- 651-670-671. GM...None. && $$ $$