AFDCRP Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX 233 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Rain to continue Easter Sunday and into Monday morning - Below-normal temps through mid-week && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A southwest to northeast oriented band of moderate to heavy has been fairly stationary across the northern counties for the past few hours. Mesonet sites are reporting rainfall totals in the 1-1.75" range, with the best coverage over Live Oak County. This rain is established within the 925 mb frontogenesis zone where training is ongoing. Additionally, we are monitoring a large MCS in Mexico which is approaching the Rio Grande Plains. This area of convection is occurring out ahead of a potent shortwave that has been moving across Mexico and expected to cross South Texas later tonight into Sunday. The KCRP VAD Wind Profile is showing a veering profile through the depth of the atmosphere with backing winds aloft indicative of the approaching shortwave. All this to say we have a good chance for much needed rainfall over South Texas in the next 12- 18 hours. The latest CAM guidance is showing that a widespread area of 1-2" if rain could still fall across the region during the aforementioned period with locally higher amounts near 3" possible. Rain chances will begin to taper off Monday morning as we dry out throughout the week. Below normal temperatures are expected Sunday and into mid-week before returning to near normal values late in the work week. Above normal temperatures could be back in the forecast by the end of next weekend. Friday and Saturday will both feature low chances (15-25%) for showers with the best chances across the Coastal Plains and Victoria Crossroads. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 As the front cleared the coast a few hours ago residual showers and thunderstorms have been left in its wake. We will continue to see showers and thunderstorms through Sunday evening. This will lead to periods of MVFR to IFR conditions (CIGs and VSBYs). Winds will be elevated especially near convection with gusts around 25-30 knots expected through the evening. Have kept PROB30s for potential lower IFR to LIFR conditions through the day specifically Sunday afternoon. Will continue to monitor, though as we progress into the afternoon rain should become more stratiform and lighter.&& .MARINE... Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A moderate to fresh (BF 4-5) northeast breeze is expected tonight strengthening to a strong breeze (BF 6) Sunday morning and continuing through early Monday morning. Winds will gradually diminish Monday weakening to moderate breeze Monday night. High rain chances (70- 90%) will continue through Sunday night decreasing to a medium chance (40-60%) Monday before tapering off Monday night. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 232 AM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front is currently sweeping across the region which will bring back below normal temperatures. Along the with the cooler temperatures, rain chances also continue through Sunday night. Relative humidity values in the wake of the front will remain above critical thresholds. Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions are not expected. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Corpus Christi 66 56 70 54 / 80 70 30 10 Victoria 70 52 74 50 / 40 30 10 0 Laredo 63 55 70 55 / 90 60 20 10 Alice 65 55 71 52 / 80 70 20 10 Rockport 71 57 74 59 / 70 60 30 10 Cotulla 65 54 72 53 / 70 40 10 0 Kingsville 65 55 68 53 / 90 70 30 10 Navy Corpus 68 60 70 61 / 80 70 30 10 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 7 AM this morning to 10 AM CDT Monday for GMZ231-232-236-237-250-255-270-275. && $$ $$