AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 929 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New UPDATE... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Showers and a few thunderstorms will accompany a cold front as it crosses the region today. Severe thunderstorms are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms will start to fall apart after crossing the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. - Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (50 percent) of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 30-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all local beaches through tonight, followed by a break in the high rip current risk on Monday and Tuesday. Swim near a lifeguard, and heed the advice of beach flags. && .UPDATE... Issued at 923 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Some dense fog continues across the Florida Panhandle, but it is quickly diminishing in coverage thanks to some daytime heating and mixing ahead of the front. Showers with a couple embedded thunderstorms continue to move eastward across southwest Alabama into the far western Florida Panhandle. These are not very well organized, and models show this remaining the case as it enters southeast Alabama and the eastern Florida Panhandle in the next couple hours. And the prospects of rain farther east still look rather slim as the showers and storms fall apart. Only other change was the adjust highs slightly to be cooler in the west where cloud cover will stick around nearly all day. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front is currently pushing south through central Alabama, accompanied and preceded by showers, a little embedded thunder, and some trailing stratiform rain. The front will continue to push south today, passing across the service area from mid-afternoon through early evening. As the front first enters southeast Alabama and the western FL Panhandle, it will still be accompanied by abundant showers and a few thunderstorms. There are no indications of severe thunderstorms, with only weak instability and deep-layer shear of 15- 25 knots forecast. As the front crosses the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers, convection will shrivel up, as it encounters drier mid-level air and a loss of upper support (larger scale lift). Behind the front on Sunday night, northerly winds will usher in a cooler and drier air mass. By sunrise on Monday morning, temperatures in the 50s will be common, with lower 60s clinging to the SE Big Bend region. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 The subtropical jet stream across Mexico and the Gulf will consolidate and become more active for a few days starting Monday. As the first shortwave zips east across the Gulf, models blossom stratiform rain out of a mid-level cloud deck, mainly over the SE Big Bend and the Forgotten Coast, with modest ensemble support for rain spreading all the way north to a Panama City-to-Tallahassee-to- Valdosta line. There is strong consensus for no rain Monday for places like Dothan and Albany. With any rain emanating from a mid- level cloud deck and drier air near the surface, there could be quite a bit of visible virga beneath cloud bases Monday. The next shortwave on Tuesday will simply pass too far south to bring rain chances anywhere north of the Forgotten and Nature Coasts. The last of the southern stream shortwaves will a negatively tilted feature which pass on Wednesday. Upper diffluence in advance of this feature should produce enough lift within the mid-level cloud deck to squeeze out some rain. Better lift and moisture will still be passing across the Gulf, so there is question about how far north and inland the rainfall could extend. Rain chances with this forecast package will actually trend upward more solidly into the 20- 30 percent range. That is still a low chance, but the trend is encouraging for those wanting even a little rain. One thing favoring a little rain will be development of strong easterly low-level flow on Wednesday. Convergence along small scale speed surges could help with lift. Speaking of the easterly wind, Wednesday will be windy. At sunrise Wednesday, GEFS ensembles show 925 mb easterlies most likely in the 35-40 knot range. As thermal mixing gets underway later in the morning, this could easily translate to surface wind gusts of 35-40 mph. The consensus of MOS forecasts on Wednesday shows sustained winds of 18-20 knots, while 90th percentile values from the EPS ensemble are in the 23-25 knot range at many of our airport sites. Parts of the region could eventually need a Wind Advisory on Wednesday if guidance continues to look this way. Over the Gulf waters, about half of the GEFS ensemble members show winds that would support a future Gale Warning. From Thursday through Saturday, a 500 mb ridge axis will develop and strengthen from the Middle Gulf to the Carolinas. The mid-levels will dry out and warm up under the influence of large-scale subsidence. The cap of warm and dry air aloft will eliminate rain chances from Thursday evening onward. After spending Tuesday through Thursday with near normal temperatures, the ridging will boost temperatures above normal on Friday and Saturday. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 642 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Areas of dense fog are affecting the DHN and ECP terminals this morning. This will make way for scattered showers and thunderstorms later this afternoon as a cold front begins to make its way through the region from the northwest to southeast. MVFR conditions can be expected when thunderstorms pass through. Winds will become northwesterly, then northerly behind the frontal passage tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front will push south across the waters this evening, followed by a shift to fresh and strong north to northeast breezes. Winds will turn easterly on Tuesday as high pressure moves east of the Carolinas. Stronger high pressure will bridge in from the north on Tuesday night, freshening the easterlies from Tuesday night through Thursday. During that time, Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected, and there is a low to medium chance of gales. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front will pass across the districts today from mid- afternoon through early evening. Showers and a few thunderstorms ought to accompany the front at first, but then convection will shrivel up after the front passes the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. North to northeast winds behind the front tonight will usher in a cooler and drier air mass for Monday. Light rain is possible on Monday and again on Wednesday, mainly over our Florida and far south Georgia districts, as upper disturbances zip east across the Gulf. Look out for an increase in wind that is coming up from late Tuesday through Thursday. Peak winds are forecast on Wednesday, when easterly gusts are most likely to hit the 30-40 mph range. Otherwise, areas of fog are expected this morning west of the Flint and Apalachicola Rivers. On Monday morning, patchy fog will be confined to the northern Nature Coast and Lower Suwannee Valley. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 145 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Forecast rainfall through Monday ranges from just a few hundredths of an inch to about one-half inch, with embedded pockets of 1-2 inch totals further west in the Panhandle and Southeast Alabama. This will be well short of amounts needed to produce flooding, and it will be short of amounts needed for meaningful drought relief. For more local drought information and statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 84 58 72 55 / 20 30 30 20 Panama City 77 57 71 56 / 30 30 30 20 Dothan 75 51 69 50 / 70 20 10 10 Albany 77 53 71 50 / 60 30 10 0 Valdosta 86 59 73 55 / 20 30 30 20 Cross City 85 62 77 55 / 0 10 50 50 Apalachicola 77 60 69 58 / 10 40 50 40 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for FLZ007>013- 108-112. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-114- 115. GA...None. AL...Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for ALZ065-068. GM...None. && $$ $$