AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 1105 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Beach Hazards Statement strong longshore current expanded into Coastal Horry Co. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Today will see the last of 80 degree temps for awhile as a strong cold frontal passage tonight will be preceded by afternoon and evening showers and t-storms. - 2) Much Cooler Weather on the Way Monday Through Wednesday. - 3) Temperatures On the Rise Thursday Through Next Weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Today will see the last of the 80 degree temps for awhile as a strong cold frontal passage tonight will be preceded by afternoon and evening showers and strong t-storms. More clouds than sun expected today as the upper and sfc ridging of the past 5 days breaks down as a digging upper trof expands to the East Coast. This will result in an approaching sfc cold front from the west that should push across the area and off the coast later tonight. Should see max temps break 80 once again today, except 70s at the coast. Sfc dewpoints will reach the low to mid 60s along with increasing Atl moisture in the lower levels and tapping of the Gulf in the mid-levels. Will see the demise of the elevated subsidence inversion of the past week that helped keep a lid on convection. Progged MLCAPE of 500-1000 will occur by this aftn/evening and with decent lift ahead of the cold front, expect shower and tstorm activity this aftn and continuing into the evening. Activity will occur well ahead of the cold front this aftn, followed by activity associated with the cold front itself. With 35 to 45 kt low level winds expected today, thunderstorm activity could produce damaging wind gusts. QPF amounts now thru late tonight will generally range from one quarter to one half inch with isolated hier amounts. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Much Cooler Weather on the Way Monday Through Wednesday. Cold front is offshore by Monday morning, and much cooler, drier air settles into the area. Highs will struggle to hit 70 degrees Monday, increasing a couple of ticks by Tuesday. Another cold front pushes through Tuesday, with no rain to boot. This front will simply reinforce the cooler air, with Canadian high pressure moving into the Northeast. Wednesday highs only get into the mid 60s. Lows in the 40s each night, with Tuesday night appearing to be the chilliest (bottoming out near 40 inland). Fair amount of guidance suggests it could be even cold that night, potentially getting down into the mid 30s in parts of Robeson, Bladen, and Pender Counties. This would potentially create some frost concerns, but gradient winds remain elevated, which would largely prevent frost from settling in. Temperature forecast will need to be monitored here, but ultimately, this is not the most ideal setup for frost. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures On the Rise Thursday Through Next Weekend. Surface high pressure kicks offshore, allowing for return flow to set up. Meanwhile, modest ridging starts building in from the Gulf. Temperatures start to kick up Thursday, increasing each day through next weekend. Highs Thursday in the lower 70s become the lower 80s by Saturday and Sunday. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... VFR with possible periodic MVFR ceilings to run from 12Z thru 14Z. With boundary layer winds staying active this morning, do not expect fog to be an issue. By midday into the aftn, the inland terminals will see low and mid level clouds prevailing AOA MVFR. However, convection ahead of the cold front will produce periodic MVFR conditions by early to mid afternoon. These MVFR conditions will expand to the coastal terminals by mid to late afternoon. Majority of the pcpn activity will be off the Carolina Coast by 06Z Mon followed by the CFP itself. MVFR ceilings after 06Z should transition to VFR as drier air and CAA overspread the area. Winds generally SSW 5 to 10 kt, increasing to around 15 kt g25 kt after 14Z and continuing into this evening. During the CFP late this evening into the overnight, winds will veer to the W to NW around 10 kt and to the N-NNE during the predawn Mon hrs. Extended Forecast...The front should move well offshore during the predawn Mon hrs. Low levels expected to dry out on northerly winds. Generally VFR conditions are then expected through Thursday. && .MARINE... Through Tonight...Borderline SCA conditions expected this period. First, a slight increase in the SE swell combined with southerly wind chop will combine to come close to 6 ft especially across the ILM NC Waters. Confidence remains low for this occurrence but enough to mention its possibility. The better prospects of SCA conditions will occur post CFP where CAA and a tightened sfc pg may produce 25+ kt gusts across milder local SSTs. Local SSTs have increased dramatically the past 5 days given the persistent onshore SE-S flow. This illustrated well by the latest SST Satellite Imagery loops. The gusty S-SSW winds ahead of the cold front will switch to the NW to N after midnight tonight. Will need to monitor for more frequent 25+ kt wind gusts after the CFP that could result in a short term SCA threat. Will need to monitor the convective activity as it pushes off the mainland later this aftn and this evening that may produce strong 34+ wind gusts that may require SMW issuances. Monday through Thursday...Cold front is offshore by Monday morning, leaving behind a stiff NNE wind at 20+ kts. Gradient winds loosen up by the afternoon, veering more towards the NE, coming down to below 10 kts by Monday evening. Seas at 3-5 ft come down to 2-4 ft by this point. Gradient winds start to come back up again throughout the day Tuesday, ahead of the next frontal system. Winds kick up to 10-15 kts, with a few gusts up to 20 kts possible. Pressure gradient hits a fever pitch Tuesday night through Wednesday, as winds and seas won`t have a problem reaching Small Craft Advisory territory (sustained winds 25+ kts, and seas up to 6-8 ft). Guidance is still a bit messy regarding the possibility for gale gusts, but it appears that the best opportunities may be over the coastal waters of SC. Winds and seas come down ever so slightly Wednesday night and Thursday, but still remain comfortably in advisory thresholds. && .CLIMATE... After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3 are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence. CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of the month. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ106- 108. SC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for SCZ054- 056. MARINE...None. && $$ $$