AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1103 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Breezes will gradually slacken today, and there is high confidence breezy conditions will remain out of the forecast for the start of the week. - Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until winds decrease for all Keys coastal waters. - Although passing showers are possible, significant rainfall is not likely for the next few days. - There is increasing confidence for above normal shower and possible thunderstorm chances for Tuesday and Wednesday. Low to medium confidence in potential breezy conditions on Tuesday night. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 The Easter Bunny has had a pleasant trip along the Florida Keys this morning. Automated surface observations have been reporting mild morning temperatures near 80F coupled with dew points in the lower 70s. Breezes are in the process of gradually diminishing, and the sparse surface observations we have available to us are reporting sustained winds near 15 mph. Occasionally, these automated obs will show a gust observation, but these are coming in much less frequently compared to the past few days. Visible satellite shows a widely spread field of cumulus clouds, but plenty of sunshine is making it through the breaks in the clouds. Our KBYX radar is detecting some shower activity across the area, mainly across the distant Florida Straits south of the Lower Keys. Based on the narrow appearance of the shower activity, there may be a localized area of surface- level convergence triggering this activity. The 12Z sounding from the morning radiosonde launch shows a reasonably moist profile from the surface up to near 700mb. Within this layer, winds veer ever so slightly. If there truly is some convergence still out there, the current chance of showers, 30%, seems reasonable to carry through this morning update. No changes to the current forecast package are proposed at this time. && .PREV DISCUSSION... Issued at 415 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 After days of breezy weather across the Keys, the winds are finally beginning to slacken today. While breezes are still fresh to strong across Keys nearshore waters, winds at both airports slackened below breezy thresholds during the early nighttime hours. However, lighter breezes do not mean no weather. The KBYX radar detected more showers than usual across the Keys coastal waters. Multiple locations across the Middle and Lower Keys observed at least a trace of rainfall. Satellite observations, and the evening KKEY sounding, suggest a plume of moisture is beginning to move over South Florida. Weather across the Florida Keys, after a long dry spell, is trending back towards a wet patten this Sunday. Zooming out to look at the synoptic scale, one can see a well developed low pressure system over northern Ontario and Quebec. This low, its associated mid level trough, and the eastward movement of the Atlantic high are why winds are slackening across the Keys. Mid level winds are also veering southeasterly, which is bringing additional moisture towards the Keys. The climatological chance for showers is around 10 percent in April, and there is high confidence in a chance of showers through Tuesday. Thunderstorms may be able to form starting on Monday as well. Past Tuesday morning the confidence in the forecast drops significantly. Yesterday, statistical models indicated a prolonged breezy, possibly windy, period across the Florida Keys this week. Last night and this morning`s model runs instead show a delay in breezy conditions until Friday. What happened? A cold frontal boundary located over the eastern United States will meander east to southeast towards South Florida this week. While prior models suggested faster movement of the front, the recent model runs stall it over South Florida until Thursday to Friday, which means the pressure gradient does not tighten across the Keys. This also means a stalled source of lift would be located just north of the island chain. The resulting forecast shows higher chances of showers midweek, and statistical guidance suggests PoPs as high as 60 to 70 percent. However, this is not a confident forecast at this time. Model runs may shift back towards a faster front tomorrow. Either way, the Keys may get some much needed rainfall this week. && .MARINE... Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Small Craft Should Exercise Caution Until Winds Decrease across all Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, breezes will continue to slacken while an Atlantic high weakens and moves farther east. There is high confidence that light to gentle breezes will persist through Tuesday. A high pressure system descending into the Northern Plains on Tuesday night will push a frontal boundary south towards the Florida Keys. Considerable uncertainty surrounds where the front will stall, and when breezes will freshen later this week. In contrast to the wind field, there is high confidence for a chance of showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms mid week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 957 AM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period. If any MVFR CIGs are observed, they will be short lived and infrequent as a low level cloud field brushes the area. East surface winds of 10 to 15 knots will occasionally gust to near 20 knots, but the frequency of these gusts will decrease over the course of the period. TAFs will remain dry even with showers to the south of the area, but we cannot rule out a stray shower brushing either terminal. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 73 83 72 / 20 20 20 30 Marathon 82 74 81 73 / 30 30 30 40 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$