AFDBRO Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Brownsville TX 1222 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Key Messages: * The Weather Prediction Center includes all of our County Warning Area within a Marginal Risk (Level 1/4) of isolated flash flooding for Sunday. * An additional 0.5 to 1.5 inches of rain is likely across most of the area Sunday. * A medium risk of rip currents continues through tomorrow afternoon and marine/coastal conditions are likely to become adverse tomorrow and into the beginning parts of next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 In the wake of the cold front tonight, cooler temperatures are forecast Sunday through the middle of next week. An overrunning pattern looks to keep rain chances elevated through the day Sunday with rain chances beginning to drop off Monday. The thunderstorm potential looks to decrease behind the front, as limited elevated instability drops off rapidly Sunday morning. However, deep mid- level moisture could still support heavy rainfall, with PWAT values ranging from 1.5-2 inches through much of the day Sunday. Probabilistic NBM still supports an additional 0.5 1.5 inches of rain Sunday. Low temperatures are forecast to fall into the 50s to low 60s tonight High temperatures Sunday will likely range from the low 60s to mid 70s, with lows Sunday nigh in the 50s across most of the area. A gradual warming trend will likely raise afternoon highs back into the 80s by mid-week. Rain chances look to increase again near the end of the week as an upper level shortwave moves across South Texas. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1212 PM CDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Conditions currently range from IFR at KBRO and KHRL to MVFR at KMFE along with light to moderate rain and north-northwesterly winds of 15-20 knots, gusting to around 25 knots. Intermittent showers continue through tonight, but progressively become lighter in intensity, with prevailing conditions expected to become IFR overnight and periods of LIFR continuing. IFR to MVFR skies are likely again tomorrow along with lighter northerly winds, though breezy at times. Light showers or mist may continue into tomorrow morning. && .MARINE... Issued at 1104 PM CDT Sat Apr 4 2026 A Small Craft Advisory is in effect from 7 AM to 1 PM Sunday, but may need to be extended or replaced with Small Craft Should Exercise Caution headlines. Strong northerly winds and elevated seas will begin to improve by Monday, with generally favorable conditions forecast to return by Tuesday morning and continue through the end of the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... BROWNSVILLE 58 71 58 77 / 90 60 10 20 HARLINGEN 55 72 54 79 / 90 50 10 10 MCALLEN 59 73 58 81 / 80 40 0 10 RIO GRANDE CITY 55 70 56 78 / 70 20 0 10 SOUTH PADRE ISLAND 65 70 66 74 / 90 60 10 20 BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL 59 71 60 78 / 80 60 10 20 && .BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for TXZ451-454-455. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ130-132-135- 150-155-170-175. && $$ $$