AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 319 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... No significant changes to the forecast. The Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) continues for SE portions of the area. The main threat remaining isolated damaging wind gusts. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) A strong cold front brings a high coverage of showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. 2) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. 3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 300 AM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...A strong cold front brings a high coverage of showers or thunderstorms today. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather across the SE portions of the area, with the main threat being isolated damaging wind gusts. A low pressure system will lift NE of the Great Lakes today dragging a strong cold front through the area late this afternoon into the overnight hours. Widespread showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected across the area today. The timing of the showers and isolated thunderstorms remains similar from previous forecasts, expecting convection to begin in NW portions first late this morning then reaching the SE portions by early afternoon. Good moisture returns to the area ahead of the front (dewpoints in the low to mid 60s) will allow a few hundred J/kg of SBCAPE across the eastern half of the area. Additionally, the SE will see higher temperatures as the timing of the front is later with highs in the upper 70 to near 80F. This higher instability/better surface heating could help storms to become strong to severe in the SE portions of the area. SPC maintains the Marginal Risk (level 1/5) with the front in the SE portions of the area where the conditions are more favorable. The main threat with any storm would be isolated damaging winds gusts, as wind profiles look to be largely unidirectional with poor lapse rates. Rainfall totals look to be around 0.25-0.50" on average. High values up to 1.00" is possible in the SE from higher amounts in storms. While totals of ~1" are unlikely, any rain is welcome, as a large majority of the area is under a moderate drought. Additionally, a SW wind will gust to 25-30 mph in advance of the showers/tstms. KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. Behind the cold front today, temperatures will trend closer to average or below average this week. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s (lower 60s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on Tuesday, as a secondary front drops south through the area Tuesday. providing a reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont, depending on how much boundary layer decoupling that occurs. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week while dry conditions persist. 3) Depending on the amount of rainfall received, there may be potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week. With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach to the mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. With the large majority of the area under a moderate drought, there may be some concern for fire weather depending on the amount of rainfall received today. && .AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 155 PM EDT Sunday... Showers and a few tstms are moving into the region in advance of a cold front. Primarily VFR ahead of the showers with a SW wind of 15-20kt gusting to 25-30kt, and locally higher at ORF and ECG. Showers move through RIC/SBY through 21-23z, ORF/PHF through 00-02s, and ECG through ~04z, with the best chc of tstms at PHF, ORF, and ECG. Brief strong westerly wind gusts are possible with tstms. However, tstm wind gusts will likely not be much higher than the synoptic gusts occurring as of 18z. Periodic MVFR cigs are expected the aftn and then prevailing later this aftn and evening at most sites with the exception of RIC. Brief IFR vsby is expected in heavy rain. The wind will generally diminish to WSW 8-12kt after convection passes and once stratiform rain develops. A wind shift to N/NW is expected behind the cold front, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. Dry and VFR conditions return tonight into Monday. A NW wind of 5-10kt Monday morning will become W in the aftn. Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 315 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs are in effect for the Chesapeake Bay and Coastal Waters into early tomorrow, the Lower James until later this evening. - Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. A cold front is approaching the local waters this afternoon with latest analysis indicating it moving into central VA. SW winds ahead of the front are elevated thanks to a tight pressure gradient. Latest obs show 15 to 25 kt with gusts 25 to 30kt. Gusty showers and storms ahead of the front are also producing wind gusts 34-50kt+ and pea sized hail, for which SMWs are being issued. Should see a 5-6 hour break in the winds behind the front this afternoon until late tonight as winds turn to the W and then NW. NW winds then increase to 15-20kt over the bay and 20-25kt over the coastal waters tonight through early tomorrow morning. Did just go ahead and extend the existing SCAs for the bay into tonight despite the break instead of trying to time exactly when the southern surge stops and the northern surge begins within a 6 hour period. Meanwhile for the coastal waters, the SCAs extend into tonight due to seas staying up around 5ft. Winds quickly drop off tomorrow morning as transient high pressure slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back to the SSW Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front early Tuesday morning, then breezy out of the north behind it Tues. An extra push of CAA and pressure rises are expected as strong high pressure settles into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase back to SCA levels for at least the southern coastal waters and lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge should also build seas to at least 5ft for the southern waters as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-650- 652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ633- 635>637. Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for ANZ638. && $$ $$