AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 348 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 - Elevated fire weather conditions are expected Tuesday, especially in areas that have received little to no rainfall over the past few days and extreme to exceptional drought persists. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (50 percent) of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 30-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. - A prolonged period of high rip current risk will continue at all local beaches through tonight, followed by a break in the high rip current risk on Monday and Tuesday. Swim near a lifeguard, and heed the advice of beach flags. && .SHORT TERM... (This Evening through Monday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Cold front is just now nudging into our far northwestern sections (southeast Alabama) as winds are beginning to switch to the west to northwest from Pensacola FL to Troy AL. Showers are along and ahead of the front from the Florida panhandle northeast to central Georgia. A sharp delineation to temperatures from the low 70s where clouds have been entrenched most of the day in our western sections to mid/upper 80s into the east Florida Big Bend and adjacent southern Georgia. The front is progged to continue its slow march through the Tri- State region through the rest of the afternoon and overnight hours, and end up south of our Gulf waters and stretching across the Florida peninsula Monday morning. Unfortunately, the trends in the 12Z models show an overall weakening trend in rainfall into this evening and overnight as it reaches the Tri-State corner this evening. As the front moves through, winds will swing around to the north and northeast, bringing with it cooler with somewhat drier air (the further north you are) with lows overnight in the low 50s in the wiregrass to mid 60s in the southeast Big Bend. A weak vort lobe moves across the northern Gulf coast Monday and Monday night which appears to bring enough lift to spark isolated showers generally over the Gulf waters north to the I-10 corridor. Chances stand at 30-50% in the afternoon hours with the higher end of the range along the Forgotten and Nature coasts and into the extreme southeast Big Bend. Otherwise, highs will be cooler and range through the 70s. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Shortwave will continue moving east Monday night with isolated showers focused into the southeast Big Bend. On Tuesday, shortwave ridging will set up with a drying in the 700-500mb layer which will lead to dwindling rain chances along the coast and partly sunny skies. At the same time, sprawling high pressure will situate in the northeast and, with the cold front remaining across the peninsula, will strengthen the pressure gradient Tuesday through Thursday. There will be an uptick in gusty winds each day with the highest potential centered on Wednesday. In fact, a wind advisory may be needed as 925-850mb winds in the 35-40 knot range during the day and the potential to mix down surface gusts near 40 mph. A second shortwave will lift northward from the Gulf Wednesday which will help initiate a few showers from south to north during the day and overnight before it lifts north of the region Thursday. From Thursday through Saturday, a 500mb ridge develops and strengthens through the southeast CONUS. Rainfall chances gradually end and the warmup commences with 80s returning in earnest by the end of the work week. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 Used the latest HRRR and current radar to update timing on convection affecting ECP/DHN/ABY this aftn. Somewhat reluctantly kept a mention of thunder based on the sat trends. Much of the precip looks to dissipate after 0Z with a band of MVFR cigs crossing the terminals as FroPa occurs. Winds then shift out of the north tonight, followed by renewed shower development streaming SW to NE across TLH/VLD tmrw morning. A 12-18Z PROB30 for -RA was intro`d to acct amidst high to lower-level clouds from north to south. && .MARINE... Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front will push south across the waters this evening, followed by a shift to fresh and strong north to northeast breezes. Advisory level winds will take hold after midnight in waters west of Mexico Beach with cautionary conditions east of Mexico Beach to Apalachee Bay. Winds will slowly relax Monday afternoon though cautionary conditions are likely to continue across all northeast Gulf waters. Winds will turn easterly on Tuesday as high pressure moves east of the Carolinas. Stronger high pressure will bridge in from the north on Tuesday night, freshening the easterlies from Tuesday night through Thursday. During that time, Small Craft Advisory conditions will return, and there is a medium chance of gales. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 A cold front will continue its trek southeast through the rest of the day and overnight, positioned south of our area by Monday morning. Isolated light showers, and perhaps a thunderstorm, will continue in association with the front though overall probabilities will be decreasing. Behind the front, winds shift to the north bringing in a cooler and drier airmass. Monday, light showers will be confined mainly south of I-10 while Tuesday will be mainly dry. Tuesday will have partly to mostly sunny skies which will promote good mixing and afternoon humidities falling to near 25% from the ANF northeast to the I-75 corridor of southwest Georgia. Coupled with increasing afternoon winds, this will lead to elevated fire weather conditions through these districts. Any outdoor burning is discouraged. Wednesday, rain chances and moisture increase, along with the winds. In fact, easterly gusts may reach to the 30-40 mph range. Winds will decrease late week into the weekend though a few light showers here and there Thursday cannot be ruled out. High temperatures Tuesday through Thursday will be in the 70s with 80s thereafter into the weekend. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 346 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 No flooding is expected for the next 7 days. Rainfall through the rest of the afternoon and early evening will be maximized west of the Flint/Apalachicola Rivers where a half to an inch of rainfall will likely occur. As the front moves southeast and the rainfall takes a downward trend, a few hundredths to perhaps a tenth or two is anticipated. Forecast rainfall beginning overnight tonight through Thursday ranges from just a few hundredths of an inch over the wiregrass to about one- half inch in the southeast Big Bend. This will be well short of amounts needed to produce flooding, and it will be short of amounts needed for meaningful drought relief. For more local drought information and statements, visit the following websites: weather.gov/tae/LocalDrought weather.gov/tae/DroughtInformationStatement && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 58 72 55 76 / 20 30 20 10 Panama City 57 70 57 78 / 20 30 20 10 Dothan 51 68 50 76 / 20 0 10 0 Albany 52 71 50 76 / 30 0 10 0 Valdosta 58 72 55 76 / 30 20 20 10 Cross City 61 77 53 74 / 10 50 60 30 Apalachicola 59 69 58 72 / 30 50 40 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ108-112-115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 1 AM to 1 PM CDT Monday for GMZ751-770. && $$ $$