AFDAKQ AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Wakefield VA 908 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisories have been issued for the tidal rivers of eastern Virginia and the Currituck Sound. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. 2) Depending on the amount of rainfall received this afternoon and evening, there may be potential for heightened fire danger early this week. && .DISCUSSION... As of 905 PM EDT Sunday... KEY MESSAGE 1...Temperatures behind the cold front will trend near or slightly below average early next week with the potential for frost/freeze headlines. The coldest morning looks to be Wednesday, with widespread lows around freezing possible away from the coast. Convection has redeveloped ahead of the front in SE VA/NE NC this evening, which is advancing through central VA at this hours. The convection across the SE is producing locally heavy rain, but no strong wind gusts given that the airmass is convectively overturned with SBCIN/MLCIN in place and only a few hundred J/kg of CAPE. Over 3" of rain have fallen in a couple of spots in NE NC, but this is much needed given the ongoing drought. Convection pushes to our SE by 11 PM or midnight and the front moves south of the area by early Monday morning. Cooler/drier air will filter in overnight behind the cold front tonight. Temperatures will trend closer to average or below average this week. Highs on Monday will be in the mid 60s (lower 60s at the coast) and mid 50s N to mid 60s S on Tuesday, as a secondary cold front drops south through the area Tuesday providing a reinforced shot of CAA. Strong high pressure builds to the north of the area by midweek which will result in cooler conditions Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s to mid 60s due to the NE flow. There will be potential for frost or freeze headlines both Tuesday night-Wednesday AM and Wednesday night-Thursday AM for areas where the growing season has started. For reference, the growing season has started 4/1 for all but the far NW counties, which start 4/11. At this time, Wednesday morning looks to have the highest potential for a freeze, with widespread lows around freezing possible, with even upper 20s possible in the Piedmont. This will depend on how much boundary layer decoupling occurs, which will be primarily affected by how far south the high builds. Temperatures gradually moderate back to near seasonal averages late in the week while dry conditions persist. KEY MESSAGE 2...Depending on the amount of rainfall received this afternoon and evening, there may be potential for heightened fire weather concerns early this week. With the two cold fronts and high pressure building over the area this week, there is potential for heightened fire weather concerns as dewpoints drop significantly and minimum RH values reach to the mid 20s to mid 30s for portions of the area. However, winds are not expected to be more than 15-20 mph early this week. With the large majority of the area under a moderate drought, there may be some concern for fire weather by Tuesday depending on the amount of rainfall received today. So far today, areas from the Middle Peninsula W through the southside RIC metro/Chesterfield/Tri-Cities SW through the I-85 corridor has only has 0.1" or less, with generally 0.1-0.25" NW of this corridor. These areas will see little to no additional rainfall. Farther E, there has generally been 0.25- 0.5" with locally higher amounts for areas that have had showers/tstms, and showers/tstms are still expected to fill in across NE NC, so these locations should have beneficial rainfall through the evening. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 740 PM EDT Sunday... Showers and a few tstms tracked across the terminals earlier today well ahead of a cold front. That cold front is entering northern portions of the CWA, and showers (with embedded +RA) have redeveloped INVOF ORF/ECG. Mainly VFR at RIC/SBY/PHF through the period, with periodic MVFR conditions possible at ORF/ECG through 02-04z (perhaps IFR at ECG in heavy rain). Winds are still SW at this hour, but a wind shift to N/NW is expected behind the cold front, with gusts to ~20kt at ORF and ECG. Dry conditions and mainly clear skies return tonight into Monday. A NW wind of 5-10kt Monday morning will become W in the aftn. Outlook: VFR conditions prevail Monday night through Friday. A secondary dry cold front will cross the area Tuesday. && .MARINE... As of 710 PM EDT Sunday... Key Messages: - SCAs are in effect for all waters through Monday morning. - Strong high pressure building in behind another cold front will likely bring additional SCA conditions Tuesday night into Wednesday. Light S winds early this evening will quickly turn to the N and increase late this evening and early Monday morning behind a cold front. Wind speeds will reach 15-25 kt with gusts up to 30 kt for all waters early Monday morning. These elevated wind speeds will not last long (~6-8 hrs), but given the decent pressure rises behind the front, should see all waters reach SCA criteria. Therefore, have added all the tidal rivers and the Currituck Sound to the SCA. Waves 3-4 ft on the Bay and 4-5 feet on the coastal waters. Winds quickly drop off after 7 AM Monday as transient high pressure slides in overhead. Becoming breezy as winds turn back to the SSW Monday evening ahead of another (dry) cold front early Tuesday morning, then breezy out of the north behind it Tues. An extra push of CAA and pressure rises are expected as strong high pressure settles into the area Tuesday night into Wednesday. NE winds during this period are forecast to increase back to SCA levels for at least the southern coastal waters and lower Ches. Bay. The onshore surge should also build seas to at least 5ft for the southern waters as well. && .AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MD...None. NC...None. VA...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ630-631-638- 650-652-654. Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT Monday for ANZ632-634-656- 658. Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for ANZ633-635>637. && $$ $$