AFDILM Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Wilmington NC 924 PM EDT Sun Apr 5 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... Small Craft Advisory now in effect through late morning Monday with frequent gusts of 25 kt expected following a cold fropa. && .KEY MESSAGES... - 1) Cold front moves across tonight, with scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front late this afternoon through this evening. - 2) Temperatures near or a few degrees below normal Monday through Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at this time. - 3) Temperatures on the rise Friday through next weekend. && .DISCUSSION... .KEY MESSAGE 1...Cold front moves across tonight, with scattered thunderstorms ahead of the front late this afternoon through this evening. Scattered thunderstorms will impact the area through this evening due to warm, moist airmass in place ahead of approaching cold front. While storms are expected to remain sub-severe, stronger storms could produce wind gusts up to 50 kts/58 mph. Average QPF remains on the meager side - however, hi-res guidance continues to show a band of heavier rainfall (1-1.5+") setting up somewhere across our CWA due to relatively high PWATs and SW storm motion contributing to training of cells. Thunderstorms will weaken around sunset, with showers lingering until the cold front moves offshore around midnight. Cooler air moves in behind the front, with temps ~10F lower than past 24 hours. .KEY MESSAGE 2...Temperatures near or below normal Monday through Thursday. No frost/freeze expected at this time. The cold front will move off the coast after midnight tonight, and CAA on Monday will keep high temperatures a couple of degrees below climo. The cool advection will weaken on Tuesday and allow temps to climb to the lower 70s, however enhanced NE flow will develop Wednesday as a wedge of high pressure briefly builds across the interior Carolinas. This will keep Wednesday highs in the mid 60s most areas. Enough of a pressure gradient should be in place to maintain a breeze during the overnights, keeping lows from dipping below 40. .KEY MESSAGE 3...Temperatures on the rise Friday through next weekend. Surface high pressure will move off the Mid-Atlantic coast late in the week, and a mid-level ridge will develop overhead for the upcoming weekend. Temperatures will swing back above normal Friday, then continue to warm Saturday and Sunday, reaching around 80 degrees away from the immediate coast. && .AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to move through the area this evening, and have handled this with TEMPO groups through 02-04Z along with associated MVFR cigs. Otherwise, a sharp wind shift from SW to N is expected overnight with a cold fropa, mainly in the 10-15 kt range tonight into Monday with dry and VFR conditions. Extended Forecast...Generally VFR conditions expected through Friday. && .MARINE... Through Monday...SSW winds 15-20 kts, with occasional gusts to 25 kts, will prevail over the local coastal waters until a cold front moves offshore shortly after midnight. Seas 4-5 ft ahead of the front due to combination of 4 ft S fresh swell and 3 ft ESE 8 sec swell. Scattered showers will impact the waters until late this evening. Winds turn northerly quickly behind the front, sustained 15-20 kts with frequent gusts of 25 kts between 6z and midday Monday. High pressure briefly moving across will weaken the northeasterly winds Monday afternoon and evening. Seas 3-4 ft early Monday, with a few 5 footers in outer coastal waters, will lower to 2-4 ft late Monday, combination of persisting ESE swell and fresh NE swell. Monday night through Thursday...High pressure will extend across the Mid-Atlantic Monday night, resulting in persistent NE flow across the waters, although speeds will remain below advisory thresholds through the daytime hours Tuesday. The NE flow will intensify late Tuesday as broad high pressure moves across the Great Lakes and New England states, strengthening the gradient over the waters as a weak low several hundred miles off the SE coast moves NE. Small Craft Advisory conditions are expected to develop Tuesday evening, likely continuing through the week in persistent NE flow. && .CLIMATE... After repeated arctic outbreaks in January and February, local year-to-date temperature anomalies on February 10 were as much as 5 degrees below normal. Recent very warm temperatures in March and now continuing into April have erased virtually all of this anomalous cold. YTD temperature anomalies through April 3 are now +0.3 degrees in Wilmington, +0.1 degrees in North Myrtle Beach and Lumberton, but still -0.2 degrees in Florence. CPC outlooks across the 6-10 day, 8-14 day, and 3-4 week timeframes all show an enhanced potential for above normal temperatures across the Carolinas, implying local cities should have growing positive YTD temperature anomalies by the end of the month. && .ILM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. SC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until noon EDT Monday for AMZ250-252-254- 256. && $$ $$