AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .KEY MESSAGES... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 - A critical combination of wind, low humidity, and dry fuels is forecast on Tuesday, mainly over part of southwest Georgia and the eastern Florida Panhandle. Any outdoor burning is highly discouraged. - Strong easterly winds are expected from Tuesday through Thursday, with the strongest wind most likely coming on Wednesday. On the Gulf, there is a medium chance (60 percent) of eventually needing a Gale Warning. On land, wind gusts of 35-40 mph may eventually necessitate a Wind Advisory. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and Tonight) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 A cold front has moved south into the Gulf. Above the shallow cool air, there is still plenty of southwest flow aloft for now. Guidance shows areas of light rain blossoming this morning, mainly over the Florida Big Bend and far south Georgia. Rainfall amounts will generally amount to 1/4 inch or less. Even where there is no rain, thick cloud cover today will help to keep temperatures on the cool side, with highs mainly in the 65-70 degree range. Then tonight, dry low-level northeast flow will deepen, and upper support will exit off to the east. Light rain will end, and skies will start to clear out. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The big story will be a prolonged period of windy weather, lasting from Tuesday through at least Friday. Wednesday will be the windiest day. The low-latitude subtropical jet stream is currently expanding from northern Mexico across the Gulf. In response, surface pressures will lower by about 5 mb near the south tip of Florida tonight and Tuesday. Concurrently, strong continental high pressure over the Great Lakes will bridge south across the Southeast U.S.. Between these two features, pressure gradients will tighten impressively. For example at sunrise Wednesday, the MSLP difference between Charlotte, NC, and Tampa, FL, will be around 16-18 mb. In response, easterly 925 mb wind speeds are forecast to reach the 40-45 knot range. This would readily support surface wind gusts of 40+ mph during daytime thermal mixing. In addition, multiple pieces of MOS guidance are forecasting sustained winds 20+ kt (23+ mph) at airport sites such as Tallahassee, Apalachicola, Marianna, Bainbridge, Albany, and Valdosta. Probabilistic EPS guidance even shows a 90th percentile sustained speeds of 23-29 knots at these same sites. Unless these forecast signals were to fade, we would be facing an eventual Wind Advisory on or around Wednesday. Starting Friday, lower pressure over South Florida will start to eject out through the Bahamas and in the direction of Bermuda. This will start to loosen the pressure gradient, while causing winds to back around more northeasterly. 500 mb ridging will amplify and strengthen from the Middle Gulf to the Carolinas from Friday through Sunday, capping the atmosphere while raising temperatures back above normal. Other than wind, the low rain chances (20-40 percent) will develop on Wednesday and Thursday. 1000-700 mb flow will be most directly eastward during that time (as opposed to northeastward), which will push PW values over 1 inch. In addition, upper diffluence and broad lift will increase in advance of the final southern stream shortwave. The strong low-level easterly flow should provide plenty of fast-moving speed surges and associated speed convergence as well. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The cold front is slowly making its way through the region early this morning. Along the front are a few light showers, however post- frontal showers are expected late this morning into the afternoon that will impact TLH and VLD terminals. As this occurs, MVFR cigs are likely. Overall cloudy conditions will prevail through the TAF period with north/northeasterly winds. ECP, DHN, and ABY terminals may have occasional wind gusts up to 20 kts following daybreak through the afternoon. && .MARINE... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The week ahead will be rough on the waters. The entire work week will feature strong to gale-force northeast to east winds. Strong northerly breezes early this morning west of Apalachicola will clock northeasterly this afternoon, with strong breezes expanding across the rest of the northeast Gulf in response to lowering pressure over South Florida. Strong continental high pressure will bridge south across the waters on Tuesday and Wednesday, setting up near-gale and gale-force easterlies. Low pressure over South Florida will finally eject east across the Bahamas and into the Atlantic on Friday, causing winds to back around northeasterly and slowly trend down below Small Craft strength. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 The big story this week will be repeated days of strong northeast to east winds from Tuesday through at least the end of the work week. At first on Tuesday, the influx of dry air over our Georgia and Alabama districts is likely to create a critical combination of wind and low humidity. The strongest winds this week will come on Wednesday, when many districts will experience wind gusts near 40 mph, but a a clocking of winds from northeast to east will help raise humidity above critical thresholds. Winds will start to slowly trend downward on Friday, just in time for the return of above normal temperatures. With such strong winds this week, widespread high dispersion values are a foregone conclusion from Tuesday through next weekend. Otherwise, patchy fog is expected early this morning near the northern Nature coast and the Lower Suwannee. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 256 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Flooding is not expected for at least the next 7 days. Where rain occurs this week, it will not by hydrologically significant. Neither will it be enough to help with the drought. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 69 54 77 56 / 70 30 10 10 Panama City 68 55 78 57 / 50 20 10 10 Dothan 66 49 75 52 / 20 0 0 10 Albany 68 51 76 52 / 20 0 0 10 Valdosta 69 54 76 55 / 60 20 10 10 Cross City 77 54 74 58 / 60 70 30 10 Apalachicola 67 57 74 60 / 80 40 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for FLZ008>014-016-017-027-112-326-426. High Rip Current Risk until 5 AM EDT /4 AM CDT/ early this morning for FLZ108-112-115. GA...Fire Weather Watch from Tuesday morning through Tuesday evening for GAZ125-127>131-143>148-155>161. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory from 2 PM EDT /1 PM CDT/ this afternoon to noon EDT /11 AM CDT/ Wednesday for GMZ730-752-755-765-772- 775. Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM CDT Wednesday for GMZ751-770. && $$ $$