AFDKEY Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Key West FL 1057 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 ...New DISCUSSION, MARINE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Light to gentle easterly breezes are expected through Tuesday to Tuesday night. Passing showers are possible, but significant rainfall is not likely through tonight. - There is high confidence for a chance of showers and thunderstorms mid week, but confidence in the wind forecast is low. - Breezy conditions may be able to return late in the week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 It feels closer to summertime outside the front door this morning! Temperatures are currently near 80F with dew points in the lower 70s. Our KBYX radar has been busy detecting disorganized showers across the forecast area. SPC Mesoanalysis is highlighting an area of low level convergence across the area, so this is likely the culprit of the ongoing activity. The 12Z KKEY sounding from this morning shows a very moist profile through 800mb, so there should be enough moisture to encourage these showers to continue into this afternoon. A stark layer of dry air aloft suggests that we may not be able to get enough vertical growth for thunderstorms, but this is Florida. We`ll go ahead and say that the chance for any lightning is very, very slim, but not zero. To our north, a frontal boundary is notated somewhere across the northern portion of the peninsula of Florida, but there has not be much in the way of forward movement. This is the only notable feature that would cause a change in our sensible weather, so it will have to be monitored closely. Since it is still so removed from our area, no changes to the forecast are needed for this morning update as there is plenty of time before we see the consequences of this front. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 430 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 Later this week, the environment becomes much more complicated. A high pressure system descending out of central Canada into the Northern Plains will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary towards South Florida by tomorrow morning. The uncertainties revolve around where, exactly, the front stalls. Recent statistical models suggests the front will stall further north. This scenario places a general warm sector environment directly over the Florida Keys for most of the week. These conditions could start as soon as early Tuesday morning when moisture replaces the drier air aloft. In contrast to the precipitation forecast, there is low confidence in the wind forecast later in the week. The strength of easterly breezes across the Keys depends on where and when the frontal boundary stalls. The difference between the 10th and 90th percentile wind speeds over the island chain on Wednesday is almost 13 mph. The current consensus favors light to gentle breezes as the frontal boundary approaches the Keys, gentle to moderate breezes after the boundary stalls, and then freshening to moderate to fresh breezes late in the week after the Atlantic High rebuilds enough to force the boundary south of the Keys. The pattern is complex, and it will not be a shock if the wind forecast changes by tomorrow morning. However, the prolonged period of moisture will be much appreciated. && .MARINE... Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 There are no watches, warnings, or advisories in effect for the Florida Keys local waters. From synopsis, light to gentle winds across all local waters will persist through Tuesday to Tuesday night. A high pressure system building over the Northern Plains early this week will be sufficient to force a frontal boundary south towards the Florida Keys. There is high confidence that the environment will favor widespread showers and a chance of thunderstorms midweek. However, whether gentle or fresh to strong breezes are observed over the Keys waters before the weekend depends on where the frontal boundary moves. The current forecast places more confidence on the front stalling north of the our local Gulf waters. && .AVIATION... (15Z TAFS) Issued at 1026 AM EDT Mon Apr 6 2026 VFR conditions will prevail at both terminals through the TAF period, but spotty light showers may lead to short lived MVFR CIGs when passing over either site. Any reduced categories should resolve quickly as these showers are disorganized and isolated. Opting to keep TAFs dry due to the sporadic nature of these showers. East to southeast surface winds will remain light to gentle at 5 to 10 knots. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Key West 83 72 81 69 / 20 30 40 40 Marathon 82 72 80 70 / 20 40 50 50 && .KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GM...None. && $$ $$